All Quiet on the Off-Season at Disney World Front
Walt Disney World crowd trends have been quirky the last few years, which is something to which we’ve paid close attention. Last year, we wrote Summer is No Longer Peak Season at Disney World. Another post from early this year asked the titular question, Is There an Off-Season at Disney World? Well, if our August & September experience was any indication, we can answer that with an emphatic YES!
We originally weren’t going to write about our experience with lower-than-normal crowds, because it’s not exactly breaking news or a splashy story. Unlike light summer crowds, sky-high October occupancy (both of which are now the new normal), or heavy January/February crowds (the jury is still out on whether this continues–we’re betting on no), this isn’t totally abnormal. August and September have been among the lightest months of the year for a long time, so some of this could be written off as much ado about nothing.
To be sure, we’re not suggesting this is some huge story, a harbinger that Walt Disney World is in serious trouble, or sign that prices have gone too much and too many potential guests are being priced out. Honestly, we don’t think it’s any of those things. In this post, we’ll discuss the signs of a quieter than normal off-season at Walt Disney World, what we think is causing this, and what it could mean for the future…
The first sign of a quiet occupancy is hotel occupancy. With schools going back into session, fall has traditionally been a slower time of year for on-property hotels at Walt Disney World, which is why the Free Dining promotion was created years ago, in the first place.
Even calling this promotion wildly successful at filling hotel rooms would be an understatement. Free Dining has propped up occupancy and created a ton of demand for fall. Last year, even despite Hurricane Irma, domestic hotel occupancy was at 84% for this quarter, which is healthy (and even that was down 3% year over year).
This year, we spoke with a few Cast Members at the resorts who noted things were slower than normal, with not nearly as many “full” nights. Perhaps more interestingly, we heard indirectly that Cast Members working guest recovery at Caribbean Beach were having no issues moving people to other resorts–that availability was pretty much wide open.
As for us, every resort we stayed or visited this trip was dead. I’m not one to extrapolate too much from anecdotal observations, but Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Yacht & Beach Club, and both Port Orleans Resorts were veritable ghost towns during the time we spent at each. Even Stormalong Bay was uncrowded–and it was hot out!
We started our trip with a couple nights at Port Orleans French Quarter, and our room was ready before 9 a.m. via online check-in. In the past we’ve had luck arriving on a red-eye flight and going to the front desk to inquire about any open rooms, but we didn’t talk to anyone this time. Likewise, the pools and food courts were quiet each time we passed by them.
Even during off-season, this was mildly surprising. We figured Port Orleans French Quarter might see an influx of bargain-seekers like us who found it via Priceline Express Deals for ~$100/night. That’s not a typo–Port Orleans French Quarter was available for most of August and September, with many nights right at $100.
French Quarter was not the only Walt Disney World hotel listed on Priceline for September travel dates. Polynesian, Swan & Dolphin, Fort Wilderness, and Riverside have also been available–and those are just the ones of which I’m aware. For what it’s worth, finding Walt Disney World resorts on Priceline or other ‘blind deal’ sites is not unprecedented, but deals this good are rarer. (Look for a post on this topic coming soon.)
As for the theme parks, this is the least busy trip we’ve taken in a good 3-4 years. As noted in our Magic Kingdom Construction Update, we saw Space Mountain with a 15-minute posted wait midday, and that’s just the start of it. Many attractions had low wait times–seeing Frozen Ever After around 30 minutes was not uncommon, and that held true even once Epcot’s Food & Wine Festival started.
Generally speaking, the parks felt less congested, too. The only real exception to this was Epcot at the start of Food & Wine, but that’s always the case. Our experience would seem to be corroborated by an update from WDWMagic indicating that various areas are being requested to trim back labor costs due to unexpectedly soft attendance.
In the last couple days, we’ve now heard reports that several areas of entertainment are being scaled back, most notably with the Citizens of Hollywood at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know whether these specific things should be attributed to low crowds, or something else. (In the case of the Citizens of Hollywood, it could very well be short-term opex savings in advance of Galaxy’s Edge, which will receive a reallocated streetmosphere budget from other parts of DHS.)
The only anomaly in terms of crowds was the Halloween Party. As noted in our Photos & Report: 2018 Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party post, the night we attended was the most-crowded we’ve seen in years, and that includes parties later in September and even October.
The best explanation we can muster for this contrast to daytime crowds is that having only one party per week at the beginning of the season, coupled with those being among the few discounted parties for Cast Members, led to a concentration of guests at the early-season parties.
It would seem this theory holds at least some water, as we’ve spoken with people who have attended subsequent Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Parties, and they’ve reported moderate crowds at worst. Now that there are multiple parties per week, per party attendance appears to be decreasing.
As for causes of the overall slower fall off-season this year at Walt Disney World, we think there are a few possibilities. One is that people are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens. We’ve heard a lot of chatter about this, and while we think this is occurring, the prevalence of the occurrence is probably overstated. This type of thing isn’t even on the radar of a casual tourist, as there is no marketing for Galaxy’s Edge through mainstream channels.
On the other hand, we could absolutely see more knowledgeable Walt Disney World regulars who visit biennially delaying their visits from this year until next. However, we don’t really think this amounts to a huge number of people postponing visits that would otherwise occur this September.
Another possibility is that Hurricane Irma scared a lot of people. The closure of Walt Disney World during the storm made headlines in the national media, and the after-effects of last year’s hurricane season has remained in the news since, so this could still be in the forefront of people’s minds when thinking about when to book.
We’ve noticed a lot more awareness and trepidation about hurricane season–to the point that I’d go as far as to say this fear is causing more people to delay trips than Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. Still, I don’t think this accounts for huge numbers of people postponing their vacations.
One final possibility is that Toy Story Land marketing and grand opening media coverage was ineffective at enticing people to book trips to Walt Disney World. I find this plausible, but I’m not sure to what degree it’s accurate.
I don’t know what internal expectations were for Toy Story Land, but the land did not meet my personal expectations in terms of what it’d do for wait times at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. We did rope drop and evenings a few different days at Disney’s Hollywood Studios during our trip, and I was frankly surprised at the lack of crowds.
If you told me in May that Slinky Dog Dash would have lower waits than Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster at various points of the day come September, I never would’ve believed you.
One thing we don’t attribute this to is pricing. Eventually, we do think Walt Disney World’s constant price increases and nickel and diming initiatives are going to cause problems–both short term and long term, but that time is not yet.
Consumer confidence hit record levels in August, an upward trend that has continued pretty much unabated for the last several years. So long as people have a positive perception of the economy (which is what this statistic measures), they will continue with healthy spending on things like travel and leisure.
This remains true even as U.S. credit card debt eclipses $1 trillion and household debt has hit $13.3 trillion–both record highs. Again, we think that eventually this will cause issues for Walt Disney World, but not until there’s an economic correction or recession. At which time this crippling debt coupled with the perception of Walt Disney World’s high prices might be too much even for aggressive discounting and shiny new attractions to overcome.
There you have it…a bunch of theories and non-theories, each of which could be playing slight roles, but nothing that’s likely moving the needle on crowds considerably in isolation. I wish I had a better explanation, but I don’t. (I’m eager to hear plausible theories you might have.)
So, what does all of this mean for the future? Honestly, we think it’s too early to tell. For one, we still expect October to have the kind of heavy crowds that have been present the last few years. That’s no longer a surprise, it’s the new normal. Hotel availability has been minimal for some October travel dates for months, and although there have been scattered Priceline deals for October, they’re not nearly what was available for September.
There are pockets of November and December that could be a different story. Mid-November has been hit or miss the last couple of years, and the same can be said for early to mid-December. However, even a slower than normal holiday season wouldn’t necessarily be a red flag.
If one of the causes of this slowdown is Walt Disney World regulars postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, that would apply equally to November, December…and every month for the next year. What it would tell us is that hurricane season didn’t have a significant impact, and other factors could be at play.
Ultimately, we have the observation that this fall has been quieter than normal at Walt Disney World, which isn’t just a “theory,” it’s definitely true. Beyond that, we have a bunch of plausible explanations for why this has occurred, but nothing definitive. We also have what it could mean for the future, but also nothing definitive. That’s a lot of uncertainty for what could be an isolated lull in crowds, and not part of a greater trend. Still, hopefully you found this rambling discussion at least mildly interesting.
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Your Thoughts
If you’ve visited in the last few weeks, have you noticed the lower crowds? Did your hotel feel similarly like a ghost town? Do you agree or disagree with our possible explanations? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
We just got back and it was an odd trip. Lots of short wait times, except for Pandora, Test Track (not worth a 10-minute wait in it’s current incarnation), Mine Train, and Slinky Dog, rarely ever saw times above 45 minutes, but the parks all seemed packed to bursting, and there was usually standing-room only on the resort buses unless it was midday. Combined with the heat, we’ve added September to our list of times to never go again.
I think some of it is a generational shift as well. There are a couple of factors for our (Millennial) generation to consider.
1. The Millennial generation is still recovering from the Recession. From what I’ve seen, student debt isn’t stopping people from going on vacation, but people are choosing more budget-friendly options.
2. In that same vein, Millennials are starting to compare the cost of a Disney vacation to other experiences. Many, many of my friends and coworkers see Disney as, at best, a long weekend trip. They are opting for more adventurous authentic experiences (National Parks, iconic cities, festivals, etc.) over paying inflated costs for food an entertainment. As some people in this thread have already mentioned, with services like Uber and AirBnB becoming more widely available worldwide, it is becoming much cheaper to fly internationally and immerse yourself in a new culture…as compared to overpriced, hit-and-miss food samples from Epcot.
3. Millennials aren’t starting families at the same rates as previous generations. Disney spent decades marketing the parks as family destinations. Now, you can see there’s been a shift towards more mature offerings–adding alchohol to the dining plan, dining+show packages, expansion of food festivals, etc. Sure families with extra money might partake in some of these. But who’s more likely to book a dessert party–a family with four kids or a couple on their honeymoon looking to do something a little extra? And I don’t see kids eagerly collected stickers in their F&W passport books.
I think these, added with you points above, are all factors. No one piece has a large impact on attendance, but all of them together would make a difference.
My family of three has been three times now … and probably will not return.
We absolutely despise Star Wars and have no interest in anything to do with it. But, beyond that, Disney’s pricing has gone off the rails. We can’t justify $5000 for a week at Disney when that same money buys us 10 days in Europe (planning an Ireland trip to replace Disney next year). That, coupled with the disappointing experience our last visit (2017) means we will possibly never go again … and, yes, that disappoints me.
Great blog!
Just back from WDW 9/15 – 9/20. FnW at Epcot was crowded Sat night but not as much Sun night. Crowds in general were very light. Normal “pinch points” like by Peter Pan you could walk thru very easily even at mid day. And not the normal stroller parking lots everywhere. Other than 7 dwarfs in MK all waits were under 1 hr. Space Mountain was 25 minutes a couple times each day even mid AM. Same with AK other than Avatar and HS other than Slinky and Rockin Coaster. The heat and humidity were stunning at times. I normally can handle high heat and humidity but there were a couple times where had sweat through my shirt. I would take the heat and humidity over thousands of more rude people. Also, quick service food lines where all less than 5 minutes and less than that at all FnW booths. I would definitely plan for another September trip. 5th trip this year. Lowest crowds of any trip this year and going back last 20 trips.
Attendance was elevated thanks to Flo. Wait times tripled last week. Everyone we spoke with had fled to WDW from Flo. Friday night’s party was the first sellout of the party and crowds in some areas matched Christmas and Easter where no one was going anywhere.
We were actually glad that it was the end of our vacation. While it may be the happiest place on earth it certainly attracts the RUDEST people on earth!
I’ve been to Disney World twice in March and once in late June. I can tell you from those experiences, I’d much prefer to endure lines and crowds in high 60’s to mid-70’s and fairly dry weather, than to be breezing through lines in 90 degree heat and 90% humidity (which seems to be September Orlando weather as well).
Star Wars is definitely a factor. We are planning a trip for June 2019 (our family is not into SW), and asked family members if interested in coming with us. They said no way they are going until after SW land opens- trip is too expensive to do right before it opens and again after. I think lots of casual fans (every 2-4 year trip) crowds are aware and waiting.
We just got back from a weekend at WDW from 9/14-9/18 with time in parks on the 15th and 17th with a trip to the NSCHP on the 16th. Resorts were populated, but not crowded. The extreme heat was harsh on our time in the park, particularly on the 15th at Epcot, and crowds were thick in the World Showcase for the Food and Wine festival. MK on Monday was another story. While we didn’t experience it, part of our group took a full hour to travel from the Transport Center to Main Street, with similar times when departing. Once in the park, however, wait times were manageable but not negligible fo what we were trying to do. Park didn’t feel overly crowded, and there were few kids older than 6-7 in the park.
It was a ghost town basically until Flo landed. We were there from 9/8 – 9/15. Nearly everyday was feels like 102 with an air temp of 94. We don’t mind the heat and found the complimentary water now offered wonderful.
We visited Aug 26 – 30 with plans to do only the water parks and MNSSHP. The party was great with the majority of rides to be walk-ons to a 5 min wait. We’ll take it!!
What did surprise me was Blizzard Beach on a Wednesday. It was a hot, sunny 100+ degree day with 93% humidity and the park was relatively quiet! We could find tubes to bounce around in the waves without any problems. Any of the slides we rode were get to the top and slide! Zero wait for all of them! Just not our experience in the past.
I will say we were guests who were displaced last year due to Irma. We cancelled our trip 24 hours before departure and rescheduled for Jan. Because of this, we have also delayed our ‘normal’ September FD trip and booked in December instead.
That being said, we have already booked a FD Future Stay offer for Sept 2019. If Irma and now Florence are scaring people away from booking Disney in September, plus those waiting until SW:GE is open, it could bode well for our trip next September and we’ll happily embrace the lower crowds!!
I too am interested in the Priceline article.
Would you please touch on the strategy to wait for a deal vs. renting DVC points? We customarily rent DVC since we have a fixed date window that depends on the kids’ school schedule.
We went 9/6-9/15 and crowds weren’t much different than my November or April trips. Only MUCH hotter. I’m not going in September anymore. And F&W crowds ruined our WS exploration. Festival overtook area to the point that there was not much we could do. We got through the crowds, but it was miserable.
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Just returned from stay at Saratoga Springs 9/14-9/18. Parks were busier than expected. Friday night MNSSHP sold out and crowded. Sat magic kingdom very busy even til 10pm. 30 min wait for Buzz spin and speedway. 7DMT held at 100+ min for most of the day. Disney Springs was crowded on Sunday day anid night. Tuesday night still had wait times at restaurants. AK and HS both busier than expected for a Mon/Tues in September. I did however notice that crowds were much heavier in the mornings and thinned out in afternoons which i think is due to the heat. AK was very heavy busy in morning. EMH a factor. FofP in pandora had stragne line ques snaking throughout Pandora. But disappeared in afternoon. Star wars shows at HS in front of theatre were extremely poorly attended. But again, heat is definitely a factor. Covered or AC shows were packed. Frozen Singalong and Indiana jones close to 100%, even at 5pm. New Toy story rides held at 40/60 for Alien/Slinky respectively. Loving the 20 min wait for Toy Story Mania. Looking forward to mid January for long sleeves at Disney!!!
We are here now and it seems quite busy to us – we were told a lot of people in the path of the South Carolina hurricane were evacuating here and all the hotels are now full – don’t know if this is true or not!
I am here now arrived on the 15th magic Kingdom was packed took us an hour to get from Maingate to Transportation center via Ferry. Epcot was much better but still very busy in Sunday. Yesterday we went to Animal Kingdom waited for Avatar sign said 2hrs! We decided to wait it out was really just barely 45min was that to deter people to other parts of the park? I couldn’t believe it after a few hours there we moved over to Magic Kingdom managed to get 7 rides in about 2hrs not bad at all. Spent today at Universal very quiet it was awesome. Hoping Hollywood Studios is that way tomorrow. Anyhow seeing lighter crowds since Saturday I’m all for it!
Maybe because the POTUS likes to insult and debase other countries? There is a strong movement in Canada to avoid buying American or visiting America. Perhaps other countries feel the same? It’s hard to be bullied and then turn around and support the bully. I know after visiting Disney over 15 times I’m less inclined to go due to political beliefs. And never have felt this way before.
I was wondering the same thing. I’m American, so I don’t really have direct knowledge, but when other countries are protesting visits from Trump, it sounds plausible.
Well said J. Dubbs.
This was discussed way back in the early comments (I don’t expect you to go all the way back and read them, just sharing that it’s there).
Suffice to say, the ‘Trump Slump’ is definitely a thing, and is negatively impacting travel to the U.S.
More info here on the phenomenon: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lealane/2018/08/07/share-of-u-s-international-travel-drops-sharply-the-trump-slump/#7940c604d303
Not to mention the recent fight for $15 and the spotlight on Disney for not paying their workers a living wage, while park and hotel prices are pricey and increasing. It wouldn’t surprise me if people avoided Disney due to the negative press and decided to spend their travel dollars with a destination that is more ethical. I myself felt conflicted to hear that news, considering I had booked my trip almost a year in advance. Had i not had it booked, i might have looked elsewhere at the time of planning, but I am very glad that they agreed to a $15 wage for their workers.
Our family was there Sept 8 – 15th. I think the crowds were quite heavy. We went to Mickey’s Halloween party and the crowds were obnoxious. I feel this is a double-dip ripoff by Disney and it left a bad taste in my mouth – so to speak. Will never pay for special Mickey time again. Feels a little like corporate greed.
We are headed to Disney the week after Thanksgiving and I feel like most of the restaurants have been booked up for months, making me think it’s still going to be busy the last week of Nov into early Dec. I do feel Toy Story land looks like a let down- seems very baby-ish and may not attract the older crowd which I feel goes to Hollywood studios. Just my thoughts- I haven’t seen it yet other than in pictures.
We were there Aug 29-sept 2 2018 And has reserved restaurant seating for 7 at the most popular places. That being said and with smaller school age children, plans change. Some eat breakfast some don’t. Some eat a little some eat a TON! However are dining plans seemed to change everyday with each and every reassurance being accommodating to our earlier than expected arrival. 50’s, holloywood and vine, Rainforest cafe in Disney springs being the busiest and this time THE BEST EVER, and Trails End being new to us and 1.75 hrs late due to cast members WRONG DIRECTIONS. Should hv followed my demenishing direction powers! They still seated us within 20 minutes. All said and done over and exhausted. It was a great trip small crowds and no MNSSHP!!!!! Wow MUST HV TO PAY FOR HIS GOLD COSTUME AND EXRA SECURITY (pathetic) $600.00 for Disney platinum plus holders. That’s part of the reason for decline. Considering we’ve been visiting since 1986 and being Florida residents for 38 yrs. I would hv expected some sort of “ incentive “ but we r going back first of December when crowds are at their lowest. I missed the princesses and the castle at night. Taking a sitter this time for the 7 and 9
Year old.
We just back (9/9-9/15) and it was the busiest we have ever seen it at this time of year. Makes us think twice about going this time again.
We Stayed 9/8-9/15 at the Boardwalk. We got a free upgrade from deluxe club level room to a 2-bedroom suite! Definitely must be room in the hotel. Crowds were low- even cast member at DHS remarked how there are very few times that the Star Wars fireworks show was so empty. EPCOT seemed to be the exception where crowds seemed higher to us with heavy waits on the security checks and monorail .
Oh I forgot to mention we had a Free Dining bounce-back offer in our room as well. We did not take advantage of it though, because we only go every 3/4 years.