U.S. Reopening International Travel & Impact on Disney World Crowds?
The United States announced that it will lift bans for fully vaccinated foreign travelers arriving to the U.S. by air or crossing land borders, effective November 8, 2021. This will begin ending historic restrictions that barred much of the world from entering the United States. This post will discuss details and the potential impact on Walt Disney World crowds.
Starting November 8, the United States will admit fully vaccinated foreign air travelers from the 26 countries of the Schengen Area in Europe, including France, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and Greece, as well as the United Kingdom, Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran, and Brazil. Previously, the unprecedented U.S. restrictions barred non-U.S. citizens who were in those countries within the past 14 days.
Under the new policy, foreign nationals will be able to travel to the United States if they show proof of vaccination and a negative test taken within three days of air travel. Vague details of the policy change were announced in September, but the government had not previously announced a date when it would take effect, or the other specifics.
Earlier this week, the United States announced it would lift restrictions on fully vaccinated foreign nationals for non-essential travel at United States land borders and ferry crossings with Canada and Mexico beginning in early November 2021. Land and ferry travelers will be required to present proof of vaccination. However, foreign visitors crossing a land border will not need to show proof of a recent negative test.
The new rules do not require foreign visitors or Americans entering the country to go into quarantine. Additionally, Americans traveling overseas must still show proof of a recent negative test, and unvaccinated Americans will face stricter screening requirements. They will also be subject to restrictions in the countries they visit, which include quarantines and outright bans on the unvaccinated in some places.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has indicated that the United States will accept the use by international visitors of vaccines authorized by U.S. regulators or the World Health Organization. The CDC plans to soon issue new rules on contact tracing for international air travelers in the coming weeks.
The United States had lagged many other countries in lifting such restrictions, and U.S. allies have welcomed–and pushed for–the move. The United States restrictions have prevented travelers from most of Europe and Asia, including tens of thousands of foreign nationals with relatives or business interests in the United States.
The travel industry has also been advocating for this change for months, arguing that it was no longer necessary in light of the highly efficacious vaccines. Additionally, the United States has continued to allow foreign air travelers from more than 150 countries throughout the last year-plus.
This uneven policy dating back to last March has been widely criticized as making little sense. Some countries with higher case rates were not added to the restricted list, while some remained on the list long after their situations became controlled–and they stopped barring entry to Americans.
This is great news for our friends across the pond! Even if you’re not an international visitor, you might be wondering how this will impact Christmas crowds at Walt Disney World.
Frankly, we do not know. There are a lot of factors to consider, and rather than making our own bold proclamations, we’re going to share some of the potential considerations, and let you draw your own conclusions. (Okay, we’ll also make our own predictions at the end.)
We’ll start by prefacing this with our own anecdotal “experience.” International Walt Disney World fans are passionate. A good chunk of our audience is based in Canada and the United Kingdom, with the latter being wonderfully fierce fans. (No offense to the Canucks, but your enthusiasm is less surprising given proximity.)
Throughout the last year-plus, we have not seen any drop-off whatsoever in proportional readership from the United Kingdom. That’s pretty remarkable when you consider the ongoing travel ban and paltry “deals” released for UK residents. That suggests to me that you all are anxiously awaiting this news–and are ready to get back to Walt Disney World.
Continuing with the anecdotal info, we’ve heard from tons of international readers over the course of the last several months who have placeholder vacation package bookings. From what I’ve surmised, this is common practice right now in UK fan circles–many have kept these until the very last minute in the hopes of visiting between October and December 2021.
On top of that, the websites of Virgin Atlantic and other UK-based carriers temporarily crashed at the end of last month when it was first announced that the United States would drop its restrictions for foreign nationals. And that was just the preliminary news–no date was known at that time.
With that said, we’re hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions from any of this.
This change is only a few weeks away, and the vast majority of travelers do not plan trips inside of a month. While the lag time between booking and traveling has decreased dramatically in the last year, we’re skeptical that people are going to be doing international trips in large numbers–especially during the holiday season–with little notice.
There are also some headwinds that might preclude significant spikes in international tourists booking new trips to Walt Disney World. As has been discussed here at length, there’s very limited hotel availability at Walt Disney World through December 2021.
On top of that, room discounts are pretty much nonexistent. That is, unless you’re traveling during the absolute peak of Christmas crowds–dates that we already know will be a 9/10 or 10/10 on the crowd calendar. On average, international guests take longer trips and spend more time at Walt Disney World, and current pricing and availability may make that a non-starter.
Then there’s other uncertainty and wildcards.
While case numbers in Florida and the United States are now subsiding, there may be lingering travel trepidations around the holiday season. (While we have zero safety-related fears in traveling at this point, I’d be slightly hesitant to book an international trip for December simply given last year’s holiday-time spike and tightening of restrictions.)
There’s also the reality that some families would face quarantines upon returning home, school schedules, and the fact that children still remain unvaccinated. All pertinent and multifaceted considerations that may keep a segment of travelers sidelined.
There’s also the reality that the passionate and very “online” international fans are not representative of Walt Disney World’s international visitor profile as a whole. This is something we frequently reiterate when it comes to all guests–what you see on social media or even the comments section here does not reflect the sentiment of casual guests.
That is probably true here, too. There might be a number of UK and Canadian Walt Disney World fans who already have hotels booked and have been awaiting this news, posting online about it often. While large in number, the operative question is what percentage of overall international visitors does this describe? And when are they planning on traveling?
Even Virgin Atlantic’s website crashing is not necessarily indicative of overall demand, just a sudden surge of it.
Travel industry analysts have repeatedly indicated that international travel will take years to fully recover, and the process will be slower than the “revenge travel” experienced in the United States this spring and summer. (Then again, those same analysts originally forecast a much slower recovery than what has been experienced.)
Ultimately, this leaves us wondering what the potential impact to crowds at Walt Disney World could be this Christmas.
Beyond simply weighing considerations, the best way of assessing that is probably by looking at Florida’s travel numbers as a whole. The state saw 3.6 million visitors from Canada and 10.9 million overseas visitors in 2019 (throwing out 2020 data for obvious reasons). This is compared to a total of 116.8 million domestic tourists to the state.
Assuming Walt Disney World sees similar numbers as Florida, that would mean less than 10% of visitors are from outside the United States. Our guess is that overseas visitors disproportionately visit theme parks and the state’s tourist attractions, so it’s probably above 10%. However, the state’s visitor numbers don’t account for Floridians–so let’s just call it an even 10%.
While a relatively small slice of the overall pie, 10% is not an insignificant number. It’s enough to turn a crowd level 7 day into an 8 or 9 at Walt Disney World. But there’s still the unanswered question of how many of those international visitors are going to pounce at the reopening and arrive in November and December? Will they account for a 10% spike, more, or less?
On balance, my expectation would be that the number is lower than 10%, probably by a fairly significant amount. I’d be surprised if international travelers account for a 5% increase in attendance during the 2021 holiday season–that would be less than half the normal number of international visitors. While I do not question the dedication and passion of Walt Disney World’s fans from across the pond in the least, it’s still too last minute for most people to plan lengthy trips and international travel. It’s not the hardcore fans who won’t show up–it’s the casual visitors.
In addition to that, there are some things and factors that will keep away the more ardent international Walt Disney World fanbase: the lack of discounts, Disney Dining Plan, bookable hotel rooms, and other barriers to traveling in the immediate future. While many fans from the United Kingdom, Canada, and elsewhere seem to have already booked packages, these are likely to be the vocal minority of truly hardcore fans–and not representative of the international audience as a whole.
We still expect the reopening of international borders to have an impact on Walt Disney World crowds, but it not might be until January and February when we feel the real impact. Those months that otherwise would’ve been pretty slow, might now be disproportionately impacted by a surge of international travelers. Who knows, though. This is incredibly difficult to assess–the return of international travel might have a more pronounced and immediate impact on crowds at Walt Disney World than we anticipate.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Okay, now time for a United Kingdom, Canada, and beyond “roll call.” If you’re an international visitor, what’s your plan? Visit for Christmas or wait until 2022? Do you already have accommodations booked, or will you scramble to make plans on short notice? Any other considerations we failed to take into account when it comes to the end of bans, border closures, and the resumption of international travel? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Another Canadian visitor…….
We usually visit one to two times each year. We will not be returning to next fall.
Too many issues that need to be clarified….mixed vaccines, school age children, isolation requirements . We will wait until things settle down.
In your international statistics, don’t forget that the US has been open to many countries (including Canada and Mexico). So the already-visiting international visitors should be excluded from the count.
For my part, I’m feeling smug about my date prediction skills, and will be there on the 8th… 🙂
Canadian here! I just booked a house near Disney for the entire month of March. We’ve also booked a few days on the Dream. My daughters and mother will be joining me and my granddaughter who will be six. Certainly hope she can be vaccinated before March because we simply can’t wait any longer to visit WDW again. We are in serious withdrawal!
Last week I booked a trip from November 8th until November 18th , guessing it would be ok. What a relieve and great news that I will be visiting on the first day of the reopening 🙂
My UK-based wife and I have two weeks booked at Pop Century from 27th November. Can’t wait, so happy we can finally rest easy about it going ahead. Your blog has been a great help as we’ve watched and waited, I really enjoy reading it.
Such good news, another step towards normalcy. We are from the UK and had originally booked for Aug 2021, now booked for Aug 2022. My second ever visit (first time coincided with 25th anniversary when I was 14!) First visit for hubby. Our children will be 12 and 10. So excited! Have loved your posts to keep me looking forward to our trip and keep us up to date on all the news thank you! 🙂 always interesting, amusing and well written 🙂
“the lack of discounts”
Normally, I would say that if there are no discounts for international tourists, or discounts lower* than previously, then WDW is probably happy with the trends they are seeing. If continued domestic revenge travel and the DVC point issue continues to drive up attendance, there’s always the possibility that Disney will be able to rely less on tourists outside the US, so maybe it won’t be a good metric for how international travel is going? Anyway, thanks for the information on pre-pandemic trends; I definitely did not realize how much of international travel to Florida was Canadian.
* or fewer! Hardcore WDW fans surely have memories of some discount that dried up because the specific rooms that were discounted got picked up before they checked. I know I do.
We shall be returning in 312 days after having to cancel last holiday,so excited can’t wait I might burst with excitement
Another Canadian here! I’d love to return to Florida but as one of the over 4 million Canadians who received a mixed vaccine regimen, we are not currently considered “fully vaccinated.” I’m hoping the US will soon announce its position on mixed vaccines. Additionally, we require a negative PCR test taken 72 hours prior to driving across the border. These tests are both expensive and tricky with respect to timing. If we take the test then hop in the car, we’re assuming we’ll get our results back before we hit the border and that the test will be negative. That’s leaving a lot to chance for us.
What a relief…. whoop whoop.
I gambled and booked flights and Disney resort for family in July 2021 on the expectation that the international travel ban would be lifted before the end of the year.
Looking forward to my 3 weeks….. yes 3 weeks in Orlando in February 2022.
Another Canadian here. I am one of the 4 million Canadians who have mixed vaccines. No word yet on whether we will be allowed into the US, so you can add all of us to the group for whom this announcement does not allow firming up of travel plans!
*waves* Canadian reader here! We’ve cancelled and re-booked three times now since our original Sept 2020 trip was squashed, and we’re currently booked for the first week of Feb. Glad to see this step in a positive direction, however, we will not be leaving Canada unless and until the required PCR test for re-entry is dropped. We don’t mind getting a take-home test upon arrival and isolating (at home) if need be, but the chance of being denied boarding our flight home and being stuck in Orlando is just too much to consider financially.
As a Canadian who has been to florida since the borer closed, and will be returning soon, it is important to note that other factors will also impact numbers. Until 5-11 year olds are vaccinated, returning to canada will still require 14 day quarantine. Those kids cannot return to school. This will keep Xmas break up in the air.
So excited that our 2020 booking ( moved multiple times ) will now go ahead in 2022. We did a UK staycation on the beautiful Disney Magic which was amazing, but nothing compares to 2 weeks in the sunshine state.
British participants in a big Novavax covid vaccine clinical trial appear to be stranded. Their vaccine isn’t approved yet, and Novavax seems to be concentrating instead on production and use in India. So clinical trial participants (both UK and the US) seem stranded for international travel, except by dropping out of the clinical trial and receiving an approved vaccine.
Unrelated, I just saw next to my post an ad for Brightline, the private upscale passenger train service that will soon resume from West Palm Beach to downtown Miami. Construction on their new rail line connecting to Orlando International Airport is coming along.
Great news. I live in Brazil and I go with my family with DVC points every year. I already booked my trip for July 2022 to get one month at Disney, using my placeholder at the Disney Cruise Line with Disney Wish ship. And I will also try to book the Disney Star Wars galatic. Tour. I am just waiting to see how it will be the Anual pass holder for the next year.
Any predictions on the return of international cast members in World Showcase?
Finally booked a trip late January with all indications that it is a really slow time. Hope this does not really impact that. 🙁
Hardcore uk fan and dvc member here with Xmas booked since January in the hope this thing would clear by then!
We were supposed to be coming out next week during our UK half term holiday but that was cancelled as before 8th November so we’ve booked to come at Easter. Relieved that they’ve agreed to let in adults with AZ jab but we just need to find out whether the kids can come too! They’re 11 and 7 and unvaccinated, and the UK has no plans to vaccinate under 12s. So I’m a bit concerned as to whether the US will start vaccinating under 12s and then say everyone has to be vaccinated!