U.S. Reopening International Travel & Impact on Disney World Crowds?
The United States announced that it will lift bans for fully vaccinated foreign travelers arriving to the U.S. by air or crossing land borders, effective November 8, 2021. This will begin ending historic restrictions that barred much of the world from entering the United States. This post will discuss details and the potential impact on Walt Disney World crowds.
Starting November 8, the United States will admit fully vaccinated foreign air travelers from the 26 countries of the Schengen Area in Europe, including France, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and Greece, as well as the United Kingdom, Ireland, China, India, South Africa, Iran, and Brazil. Previously, the unprecedented U.S. restrictions barred non-U.S. citizens who were in those countries within the past 14 days.
Under the new policy, foreign nationals will be able to travel to the United States if they show proof of vaccination and a negative test taken within three days of air travel. Vague details of the policy change were announced in September, but the government had not previously announced a date when it would take effect, or the other specifics.
Earlier this week, the United States announced it would lift restrictions on fully vaccinated foreign nationals for non-essential travel at United States land borders and ferry crossings with Canada and Mexico beginning in early November 2021. Land and ferry travelers will be required to present proof of vaccination. However, foreign visitors crossing a land border will not need to show proof of a recent negative test.
The new rules do not require foreign visitors or Americans entering the country to go into quarantine. Additionally, Americans traveling overseas must still show proof of a recent negative test, and unvaccinated Americans will face stricter screening requirements. They will also be subject to restrictions in the countries they visit, which include quarantines and outright bans on the unvaccinated in some places.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has indicated that the United States will accept the use by international visitors of vaccines authorized by U.S. regulators or the World Health Organization. The CDC plans to soon issue new rules on contact tracing for international air travelers in the coming weeks.
The United States had lagged many other countries in lifting such restrictions, and U.S. allies have welcomed–and pushed for–the move. The United States restrictions have prevented travelers from most of Europe and Asia, including tens of thousands of foreign nationals with relatives or business interests in the United States.
The travel industry has also been advocating for this change for months, arguing that it was no longer necessary in light of the highly efficacious vaccines. Additionally, the United States has continued to allow foreign air travelers from more than 150 countries throughout the last year-plus.
This uneven policy dating back to last March has been widely criticized as making little sense. Some countries with higher case rates were not added to the restricted list, while some remained on the list long after their situations became controlled–and they stopped barring entry to Americans.
This is great news for our friends across the pond! Even if you’re not an international visitor, you might be wondering how this will impact Christmas crowds at Walt Disney World.
Frankly, we do not know. There are a lot of factors to consider, and rather than making our own bold proclamations, we’re going to share some of the potential considerations, and let you draw your own conclusions. (Okay, we’ll also make our own predictions at the end.)
We’ll start by prefacing this with our own anecdotal “experience.” International Walt Disney World fans are passionate. A good chunk of our audience is based in Canada and the United Kingdom, with the latter being wonderfully fierce fans. (No offense to the Canucks, but your enthusiasm is less surprising given proximity.)
Throughout the last year-plus, we have not seen any drop-off whatsoever in proportional readership from the United Kingdom. That’s pretty remarkable when you consider the ongoing travel ban and paltry “deals” released for UK residents. That suggests to me that you all are anxiously awaiting this news–and are ready to get back to Walt Disney World.
Continuing with the anecdotal info, we’ve heard from tons of international readers over the course of the last several months who have placeholder vacation package bookings. From what I’ve surmised, this is common practice right now in UK fan circles–many have kept these until the very last minute in the hopes of visiting between October and December 2021.
On top of that, the websites of Virgin Atlantic and other UK-based carriers temporarily crashed at the end of last month when it was first announced that the United States would drop its restrictions for foreign nationals. And that was just the preliminary news–no date was known at that time.
With that said, we’re hesitant to draw sweeping conclusions from any of this.
This change is only a few weeks away, and the vast majority of travelers do not plan trips inside of a month. While the lag time between booking and traveling has decreased dramatically in the last year, we’re skeptical that people are going to be doing international trips in large numbers–especially during the holiday season–with little notice.
There are also some headwinds that might preclude significant spikes in international tourists booking new trips to Walt Disney World. As has been discussed here at length, there’s very limited hotel availability at Walt Disney World through December 2021.
On top of that, room discounts are pretty much nonexistent. That is, unless you’re traveling during the absolute peak of Christmas crowds–dates that we already know will be a 9/10 or 10/10 on the crowd calendar. On average, international guests take longer trips and spend more time at Walt Disney World, and current pricing and availability may make that a non-starter.
Then there’s other uncertainty and wildcards.
While case numbers in Florida and the United States are now subsiding, there may be lingering travel trepidations around the holiday season. (While we have zero safety-related fears in traveling at this point, I’d be slightly hesitant to book an international trip for December simply given last year’s holiday-time spike and tightening of restrictions.)
There’s also the reality that some families would face quarantines upon returning home, school schedules, and the fact that children still remain unvaccinated. All pertinent and multifaceted considerations that may keep a segment of travelers sidelined.
There’s also the reality that the passionate and very “online” international fans are not representative of Walt Disney World’s international visitor profile as a whole. This is something we frequently reiterate when it comes to all guests–what you see on social media or even the comments section here does not reflect the sentiment of casual guests.
That is probably true here, too. There might be a number of UK and Canadian Walt Disney World fans who already have hotels booked and have been awaiting this news, posting online about it often. While large in number, the operative question is what percentage of overall international visitors does this describe? And when are they planning on traveling?
Even Virgin Atlantic’s website crashing is not necessarily indicative of overall demand, just a sudden surge of it.
Travel industry analysts have repeatedly indicated that international travel will take years to fully recover, and the process will be slower than the “revenge travel” experienced in the United States this spring and summer. (Then again, those same analysts originally forecast a much slower recovery than what has been experienced.)
Ultimately, this leaves us wondering what the potential impact to crowds at Walt Disney World could be this Christmas.
Beyond simply weighing considerations, the best way of assessing that is probably by looking at Florida’s travel numbers as a whole. The state saw 3.6 million visitors from Canada and 10.9 million overseas visitors in 2019 (throwing out 2020 data for obvious reasons). This is compared to a total of 116.8 million domestic tourists to the state.
Assuming Walt Disney World sees similar numbers as Florida, that would mean less than 10% of visitors are from outside the United States. Our guess is that overseas visitors disproportionately visit theme parks and the state’s tourist attractions, so it’s probably above 10%. However, the state’s visitor numbers don’t account for Floridians–so let’s just call it an even 10%.
While a relatively small slice of the overall pie, 10% is not an insignificant number. It’s enough to turn a crowd level 7 day into an 8 or 9 at Walt Disney World. But there’s still the unanswered question of how many of those international visitors are going to pounce at the reopening and arrive in November and December? Will they account for a 10% spike, more, or less?
On balance, my expectation would be that the number is lower than 10%, probably by a fairly significant amount. I’d be surprised if international travelers account for a 5% increase in attendance during the 2021 holiday season–that would be less than half the normal number of international visitors. While I do not question the dedication and passion of Walt Disney World’s fans from across the pond in the least, it’s still too last minute for most people to plan lengthy trips and international travel. It’s not the hardcore fans who won’t show up–it’s the casual visitors.
In addition to that, there are some things and factors that will keep away the more ardent international Walt Disney World fanbase: the lack of discounts, Disney Dining Plan, bookable hotel rooms, and other barriers to traveling in the immediate future. While many fans from the United Kingdom, Canada, and elsewhere seem to have already booked packages, these are likely to be the vocal minority of truly hardcore fans–and not representative of the international audience as a whole.
We still expect the reopening of international borders to have an impact on Walt Disney World crowds, but it not might be until January and February when we feel the real impact. Those months that otherwise would’ve been pretty slow, might now be disproportionately impacted by a surge of international travelers. Who knows, though. This is incredibly difficult to assess–the return of international travel might have a more pronounced and immediate impact on crowds at Walt Disney World than we anticipate.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Okay, now time for a United Kingdom, Canada, and beyond “roll call.” If you’re an international visitor, what’s your plan? Visit for Christmas or wait until 2022? Do you already have accommodations booked, or will you scramble to make plans on short notice? Any other considerations we failed to take into account when it comes to the end of bans, border closures, and the resumption of international travel? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Hi Tom,
From the UK and I have rescheduled several trips to WDW this year due to uncertainties around the borders opening up, eventually settling on a May 22 trip.
However I will still be visiting the US for 7 nights from 14th Nov but have opted for a trip to DL instead to experience Merriest Nites. I don’t feel like I’m missing much at WDW as most of the offerings for the 50th have left me feeling cold, and I will still get to see them next year
Hi Tom & Sarah,
I’ve been reading your blog with bittersweet interest over the last 18 months as have had several Disney trips cancelled. The delay in opening the UK US borders has been so unfair on us Disney fans. I had a once in a lifetime WDW 50th anniversary trip planned for the 1st of Oct. including MK park entry which was of course cancelled. No revenge travel for me as am too bitter about missing out sorry. Going any other time would not be the same.
Hi Tom – big Disney fans from the UK here. We should actually be there now for our third trip in 4 years, but missed out with the border reopening date by 3.5 weeks. We are trying to book another trip ASAP but one of the main blockers are flights. So many airlines have reduced their services and as our daughter is now school age we are more restricted date wise. Flight costs are astronomical! That coupled with a total lack of any real discounts from Disney (our last 2 trips had free dining) mean a WDW holiday for us is costing 3-4 times more than our last trip. So basically we get 12 nights at a Value resort now for the same price as our 12 night trip to AKL with free dining in November 2019. That coupled with all the things Bob Chapek has decided we now can’t have – the erosion of Extra Magic Hours, free Fastpass, DME etc makes us seriously question whether it is worth paying so much more for so much less. I’m sure other regular UK Disney travellers will be feeling the same.
Canadian here. I booked a place holder trip back in Feb (3 rooms) and gambled that things would be good go early December. Looks like the wait is over and we’re excited. We have 2 under 12 going and would like to have them vaccinated by the time we leave (hoping that will happen). If not, we are still going. Dining reservations, park reservations have been set and we are ready for some Disney Magic. Would love to see Hoop De Doo and Victoria and Alberts back but we’re happy. Not too sure about getting Genie + or Lightning Lanes. May take a chance on the standby.
We had our Disney trip booked and were going to be arriving this coming Tuesday. A couple of weeks ago, the Canadian government suddenly changed the rules for Canadians returning after travel, and currently require a molecular COVID test to re-enter Canada even if you are fully vaccinated. This brought our trip to a screeching halt. We already had to pay about $200 CAD for the tests to enter the U.S. To get the required molecular test to return to Canada, the best deal we could find within driving distance from Disney was $165 USD each (and would probably take 3-4 hours minimum out of the day). When you factor in travel and exchange, those tests would end up costing us a good $500 CAD, so with $700 going to COVID tests alone, we just couldn’t afford to go anymore.
We are heartbroken about this — I know it sounds like “first world problems,” but we were so desperately looking forward to this trip to break out of the awful couple of years we’ve had that it really knocked us over. We’re now reluctant to make any plans at all for fear of the rules suddenly changing again.
We are from Sydney and had a trip booked for last year. We haven’t been to WDW before but have visited the Asian parks and Disneyland . I am now thinking we will hold off on booking again till we have opening dates for Guardians and the Dining plan. It is such a trek for us to get there we are now willing to wait a bit longer for more entertainment etc
Just announced tonight that mixed vaccines even Astra Zeneca will be accepted by the US for travel.
We are Canadian. We’ve been able to fly to the US so the land border reopening does not have an impact on us personally. We were there for the 50th and have our next trip booked for February 2022.
Another Canadian here, we have been coming in early December for the last 3 years, but not this December. Instead we have rented DVC points for May stay at Kidani. Can’t wait!
Canadian here!
We had a trip booked for July 2020 that was, of course, cancelled, and are eager to get back. That said, I’ve got 4 and 6 year old kids who are not yet vaccinated, so we’ll be staying put until they are protected. Fingers crossed for summer 2022!
Hi Tom,
I’m an Aus/UK dual national, and have lived in both countries.
An influx to WDW from the UK would be no surprise. Brits are sick of lockdowns and desperate to go on holiday and escape the air of depression. FL is a cheap 8-hour flight away, not that much longer than from CA. Most Brits are fully vaccinated and used to living with COVID (currently 35k+ new cases per day in the UK), so FL numbers won’t bother most, especially families whose children already caught COVID and recovered. The UK is entering a cold winter and people missed out on two years of summer holidays. One hindrance might be term times, since UK schools are very strict on unauthorised absences, often fining parents.
Travelling to FL from Sydney is less convenient, taking around 18 hours with at least 2 flights. Until yesterday, we weren’t allowed to leave Australia, and Australians returning from living overseas faced 14 days in strict quarantine. Our largest state (NSW) just removed all quarantine requirements for returning vaccinated Australians starting 11/1/2021, opening up travel to a handful of overseas countries (including the US). If flight prices aren’t ridiculous, expect to see more Aussies (although in much lower numbers than Brits) visiting DLR and WDW, especially in January when Australia has its major school break.
We had a trip booked which we booked in Mar 2018, and we were due to arrive in Aug 2019.
Obs this didn’t happen and we had to re-book. Our travel agent offered us 120% voucher but we had to rebook within a deadline, which was earlier this year. Due to on-going uncertainty, at the time, we decided to book for summer 2022.
As such we welcome the news, but we won’t be affecting crowd numbers for a while. So I expect you are right in thinking that the impact on crowds will be a slow change rather than an immediate impact.
As an aside, The 120% voucher whilst better than nothing, has not worked out. Prices are so much higher now, we are paying £1400 extra for the same holiday and this is with $854 of dinning instead of free dinning plan. And now there is no free fastpass either
We are still looking forward to it though!
As an Aussie that has had to cancel my DW trip twice and has only just been “released” from months of restrictions, I tread cautiously. Flights to US are avail from Dec but due to uncertainty of future lockouts and quarantine requirements on our end, I am holding off booking for another year. Most people I know (from sydney anyway) are of the same opinion. I think until we are freely able to travel interstate the idea of international travel purely for holidays (as opposed to seeing family and friends) seems risky. I wait patiently and optimistically!
I’m from the UK, and we’ve had a two-week package booked for December since May. It includes flights, park tickets, car hire and hotel, and the whole thing is refundable if you can’t travel (or there is a quarantine) in either direction.
We booked because we were very hopeful the travel ban would be lifted in time for a Christmas trip. We are Disney World and Disneyland regulars, and have been since our kids arrived.
Anecdata: a close friend who is an ENORMOUS Disney geek – much worse than I am, and I’m pretty bad – did have a reservation for November, but cancelled about a month ago because he was uncertain about travel conditions opening up and decided he’d rather travel to Disneyland Paris, where he was more certain to be able to visit.
I don’t think my family is very typical. Two weeks is an expensive holiday for the four of us, but we are still able to afford a holiday like this more than once a year, which isn’t the case for most; we’re very fortunate.
I’m absolutely over the moon that we can come back.
Hi Tom,
First, thank you for your blog (thanks to Sarah too)! You have helped me plan several trips over the years! It is always a delight to read you and helps with my Disney cravings. To answer your question, I live in Canada and we are planning to visit in August 2022 (I know that it is very hot. I have visited WDW in August a few times already). We postponed our trips twice due to COVID. I have a cruise booked on the Wish next summer and will visit WDW at the same time. While I would like to go to WDW sooner than August (who knows, maybe a quick visit in the spring), next few months won’t work for us due to other commitments.
Welcome back, neighbors to the north and far east! I’ve gotten plenty of empty park experiences this past year and a half, and I’m looking forward to having people excited to be at Disney around again. It feels like everything lately has been negative news, so I’m counting this as a positive and I know it’ll improve the vibe at the parks. See you all soon!
Also a die hard…we have a four times rearranged trip (Originally August 2020) now booked for 15 nights at Wilderness Lodge at Easter 2021…we absolutely cannot wait.
We were watching a movie at home last week and my husband and I comment to each other…’We miss America’. Having travelled to the US for the past 20 years every year for our ‘holiday’…we truly cannot wait to get back.
Put me in the “die hard fan” bracket, we will be over for two weeks early December
I’m concerned with my combination vaccine: like many Canadians, I had AZ followed by Moderna. This was due to vaccine shortages in Canada but also based on data out of Europe at the time that supported this approach. I’m reluctant to go anywhere until combos are widely accepted as ‘adequately protected’.
Yippee! We’re booked from the UK for the 27th November and can’t wait for Christmas at Disney! Couldn’t get accomodation on site this time so staying on International Drive which will be a different experience for us.