Is There an Off-Season at Disney World?
For ages, people have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” It’s true that almost every year for just under a decade, annual attendance has increased. In most cases, this has been 1% to 5% bumps (per TEA reports), but it’s still noticeable–especially in aggregate. (Last updated February 4, 2019.)
During our visits to Walt Disney World last January and February, we were shocked by the crowds. Data showed that wait times were up over 20% year over year, and the parks felt even more crowded than that due to reduced capacity on attractions and shorter operating hours.
Wait times actually decreased by modest amounts in the second half of the year, which is especially noteworthy because Magic Kingdom operating hours also decreased, with fewer early openings and late closings (the times of day most likely to have shorter wait times. That’s the good news–the bad news is that wait times were once again elevated in January 2019.
In the original incarnation of this post, we speculated that last year’s spike was due to a range of factors, from shifting school schedules to James Cameron to the economy and consumer confidence. In our subsequent post, Explaining Increased Crowds at Walt Disney World, we offered Disney’s manipulation of ride capacity as the most likely scenario.
It would appear that Walt Disney World is up to these same games again in 2019, as average wait times were frequently higher in January than they were last October, November, or December. Given that January used to be a sleepy time of year that we referred to as the holiday hangover, this is quite the change.
In addition to ride capacity, Walt Disney World has mastered the art of manipulating crowds, incentivizing guests to travel during what used to be the off-season. Perhaps the biggest exemplar of this is the Walt Disney World Marathon, and we should note that it occurred almost a full week later than normal in January 2019, which undoubtedly had a more prolonged impact on crowds.
This is nothing new–Disney has been effectively manipulating crowds for (at least) the last 5 years, refining its approach along the way. This would explain October and early December gradually becoming more crowded over the course of several years, but not the surge that has been evident more recently.
When analyzing crowds of today, it’s also worthwhile to look at past trends, particularly in tandem with the economy. During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat. This was an impressive feat during the Great Recession, and led to a view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.)
Since the economic recovery began, attendance at Walt Disney World has soared. Magic Kingdom’s attendance numbers have climbed by over 3 million annual guests during that time, per TEA reports. This is in spite of pretty steep ticket and hotel price increases, neither of which have done much to slow attendance growth.
This is one big reason why “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has become such a popular refrain. Not only were crowds significantly lower during the Great Recession, but operating hours were actually longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours used to be 3 hours?!)
This all brings us back to the titular question: is there an off-season at Walt Disney World? Last year, we answered that there is not much of an ‘off-season’ in traditional parlance. That seems to be true thus far in early 2019, but there are signs that there’s still an off-season.
For starters, last fall was particularly slow, leading us to write another article, “All Quiet on the Crowds at Disney World Front.” We’d expect that trend to continue in 2019, especially as many guests are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
While we are anticipating crowds to be bonkers once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens (likely in November or December 2019), one big silver lining is that in the months leading up to it, crowds should be pretty soft. We’re already seeing signs of this with Walt Disney World dumping hotel inventory on Priceline Express and releasing Free Dining several months early.
However, one unfortunate byproduct of Walt Disney World’s sometimes aggressive reductions of ride capacity is that it’s very difficult to predict what wait times will look like, even on days when attendance is markedly lower. If attractions have their capacity cut in half, that can have a huge impact on wait times–even on less busy days.
Due to this, aggressive discounts we’re likely to see this year, and the big unknown of when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will debut, I would have an increasing amount of skepticism when relying upon crowd calendars. I think things have been trending in this direction for a few years now, actually. Crowd calendars still have utility at a high level when considering over-arching trends–and when viewed in tandem with weather and seasonal events–but I would not put my full faith in day-by-day, park-by-park scores. Relying upon these for planning your travel dates is an invitation for disappointment.
This sentiment is not a shot at other planning resources. Our own Best and Worst Months to Visit Disney World post underscores the low crowds of January, dubbing them as “lethargic.” If what we experienced in January 2019 is lethargic, I fear what Easter or October will look like. In the few years since we first published that post, I’ve revised its rankings several times, as crowds continue to grow and shift. After waiting in line 20 minutes for the TTA PeopleMover in January and seeing several attractions with 2-3 hour waits on a regular basis, I am about ready to throw my hands up in defeat.
There was a time when the past was the best predictor of the future when it came to Walt Disney World crowds. Data from previous years coupled with park hours, school calendars, etc., could produce reliable forward-looking predictions about Walt Disney World crowds. I’m not sure to what extent that remains true. There seems to be far more fluidity and unpredictability to crowds now.
As for whether the concept of an off-season at Walt Disney World will truly be a thing of the past after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, I don’t think so. What the robust economy giveth, the sluggish economy taketh. (Although not entirely, see the ‘recession-proof’ line above.) It’s hard to envision the economy continuing its current trajectory unabated, indefinitely. To the contrary, a ‘correction’ (to put it mildly) is due at some point in the medium-term.
When that happens, either attendance will fall or discounting will be more aggressive to maintain current numbers, or both. With each price increase and upcharge offering, Disney is gradually shifting its reputation to being a luxury travel destination. That’s a perception those who are firmly in the middle class–a demographic visiting now in strong numbers because they are doing well–will likely remember if when there’s a recession.
What I think is less likely is a return to the off-season crowd levels of the aughts and decades prior. Those days are gone, unlikely to return at any point in the foreseeable future. Walt Disney World has grown and changed considerably (a reality that’ll be further cemented with the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and the additions of the 50th Anniversary after that), as have the sophistication of the company’s marketing and crowd-spreading efforts.
For long-time Walt Disney World fans, this might all sound like bad news. Selfishly, we all want our visits to be relatively crowd-free. We also want the parks to continue growing and evolving (except when our own nostalgia is threatened). It’s all a delicate needle to thread. While I have some trepidation about what the future might hold in terms of crowdedness and pricing, I’m also incredibly optimistic about the money being invested into the parks right now, and how much better things will look for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Frankly, if I had to choose between the lower crowd levels of a decade ago coupled with the creative stagnation of that era, or the all-around growth of today (and the near-future), I’ll choose the latter every single time. Absent of being able to pick the “right” dates on the calendar, there are still other ways to beat the crowds. At Walt Disney World just as in life, the times they are a-changing; you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.
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Your Thoughts
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World recently? Have you encountered ‘dead’ weeks in the last two years? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the off-season? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
My sister and I were just at MK beginning of December and it was uncomfortably crowded in the evening to the point that we left early. We couldn’t get near our favorite rides and we went to eat at the Harbor House and the line was way out the door. It really cuts into the “Magic” when it’s that crowded.
We just got home (January 30th) and I was shocked at the crowd levels for our trip. We didn’t even see a fraction of the attractions I usually have no problem getting into usually during “low crowd” periods. Plus we had our 5 year old in tow, and it was my husband’s first Disney trip. We had to skip so many things because of wait times, and the FP+ limitations.
We only saw a fraction of what the parks had to offer, and for someone like myself who is super experienced with the Disney Parks, I was so disappointed that I couldn’t share my prior experiences with my family due to the crowds. We couldn’t even get on Spaceship Earth! Every single time I have ridden that, I just walked on–and I have been there all different times of the year-from Xmas week to summer!
We were at Disney in September right after Irma and we noticed that there were a lot more people. Many rides had a 30 minute wait, which may not sound like a long wait. However, we had been during the same week 4 years earlier. We never waited more than 15 minutes for any ride during that visit. We thought we were going during a slow time; boy were we wrong! Now I wonder if it’s even worth taking the kids out of school to go in an “off season.”
Hi Tom,
I feel like you would probably be the person with the best guess as to what date you think that the Free Dining Bounce Back will appear in the rooms. It was on August 1st in 2016 and on August 11th in 2017. What is your best guess for this year?
(Yes, I know that you mentioned above that it might be discontinued, but I am an optimistic person.) 🙂
Thank you!
Diann
I have seen many discussions on the recent crowds but I think the one thing that is often being overlooked is the opening of Pandora.
Well truly slower times may no longer exist, I still believe a lot of people planned trips in 2017 and this year around the Pandora opening (the biggest thing to happen at WDW in a while) and of course the vast majority of these people would be spending time in the other parks as well.
Just wait until Star Wars!
We are at Disney today (Jan 30) and we were at Disney on January 30 two years ago as well. The crowd is much bigger than it had been. Waits for the People Mover were up to 30 minutes at different times in the day.
Tom – what bounce back offer did you receive?
What is the tipping point? DVC members using their points, visitors taking advantage Disney promotions and first timers all crowding the parks. When does it lose the magic? I’m afraid to think about 2020.
One thing that makes it feel more crowded even in slow times is that WDW has adjusted staffing to save overhead. For instance, we were there in early September just before Irma, in a truly slow time, but in rides like BTMRR and Dinosaur, they were only staffing one line instead of two, effectively making the waits the same as usual. A smart move by them, but frustrating for those trying to find the perfect time to visit.
We visited first week in December 2017 and the crowds were unbearable except for Magic Kingdom was manageable on December 8th compared to parks December 3-7. The mvmcp party was sold out on December 5th a day projected to be low attendance. We took the advice of all the crowd calendars and blogs. I appreciate the update. As much as I hate going in the summer it works best with the school schedule and there doesn’t seem to be too much advantage going at traditionally off peak times (except for hating the heat). All Disney employees I spoke with warned me before my vacation there really isn’t such a thing anymore.
Everyone is finally realizing that a one hour wait for a ride is much more tolerable in 70 degree temperatures than summertime.
We were at MK early last May on what was a “low” day -even according to employees- and it felt so much more crowded than when we were there in mid-summer in 2014. I mean main street felt claustrophobic. We went to WDW in early Dec and only went to MK for the Christmas party and I don’t think I could ever do MK any other way now. It felt so much freer, better wait times, and I mean… free snacks?!
We were just there last week and were astounded by the crowds. I’d venture to say they were comparable to our Easter 2016 trip–seriously. We had a magical trip, but all of the parks were busy (HS wasn’t too crazy, I suppose). That said, I will not base my trip around crowd calendars again any time in the near future.
**I’ll have to let my husband know that you agree with his economy theory. 🙂
We were just there for 2 weeks too! In fact, I saw you and Sarah in a queue for it’s a small world (Sarah may have noticed me pointing at her and quickly turning away haha).
We were really sad with the crowds too! We went in April last year and so we were expecting a dramatic decrease from the spring break crowd… nope! In fact, we were able to walk on to Its a Small World and the Figment ride in April… last week the queues for Small World was often 40 mins (low queue was 25 mins!) We were gobsmacked!
Saying that though, we managed to get booked into Ohanas on an evening TWICE! Once was at 180 days out but we booked one a few days before the meal and there were 2 options available and we even got to watch the fireworks AND we got window seats! There was NO availability for Ohanas in April last year. Also the prices were a lot more favourable! We live in the UK so it is a bigger deal for us to go over, and it was disheartening to see the crowds.
Also have to add – we did the Keys to the Kingdom tour and could not praise it high enough!! Soooo chuffed we did it it was soooo fun, we learnt loads, got to see backstage/utilidors, went on 2 rides skip the queue (jungle cruise but we were given the backstage info instead of normal spiel, also a ride on haunted mansion – entering back stage). Also went into watch the Tiki Room (my first time!) lunch was good! Got an awesome pin! Got a cool badge at the start too with out names on which we kept (you wear this during the tour). Bottle of water upon arrival too. It was the best and so worth it!!
So in conclusion of this ridiculously long comment… I am put off going again unless we become rich and can get the Disney guide people every day!! Also I’m definitely wanting to stay at either Polynesian or Animal Kingdom Lodge next time! And I would drive possibly!! We stayed at Art of Animation this time which was awesome, I loved the Little Mermaid room, but the buses were annoying (well the people on them mainly *cough* ECV’s *cough*) although the gondolas should greatly improve that aspect! Or I will be rich so I’ll just get a driver everywhere!!
We were there January 17 to the 22. The crowds were high in all parks. We were there the year before in early December and the crowds were not high. Crazy!!
We were at Disney early December. The crowds were unbelievable. One huge problem was the lack of available park hours at the Magic Kingdom due to Mickey’s Very Merry Xmas Party. 4 party nights in our 7 night stay limited our nighttime park hours. The Magic Kingdom was beyond incredibly crowded. We are frequent Disney goers. The next issue was the remodel at Pop Century. They should have closed our building instead of tearing everything apart leaving stacks of busted vanities, toilets, mattresses ,ac units piled where we needed to walk to our room. We spoke to managers on the property. All in all this will not go down as a Magical trip with pixe dust. However during all this we were still able to enjoy the beautiful holiday decorations we love to see. There really is no low park attendance times as in years past. Since retirement we are lucky to schedule trips at different times if the year. We did have free dining in early December.
We were there January 22-27,and were also shocked by the crowds. Wait times were an hour plus for basically every ride at Magic Kingdom, and walking in the parks was difficult. We did think the table service restaurant crowds seemed fairly low. We saw a ton of the high school aged tour groups this trip.
I wonder if the slow times have simply shifted. Look at July 4th for the last two years. Crowds were much lower than expected. I think the availability of blogs and crowd calendars that discourage people from going during certain times of the year (Thanksgiving, Christmas, Easter, July 4th etc..) could be contributing to the shift. We were at Disney this past Thanksgiving and tried a different approach to touring. We completely ignored crowd calendars and just made our FPs for first thing in the morning for whatever park we wanted that day. We rope dropped every morning and did as much as we could before 11am. We also used all three FPs before 11am. Then we got online to see what park had the most FPs available and hopped to that park. It worked out that it was a different park each day. It made that week more manageable then it has ever been.
Love this approach. We’ve done similar planning but not quite that loose. ADR’s get in the way if you have any of those. Another option we love is doing parks early in the morning and then late in the evening with naps, pool, and leisurely lunches (and sometimes dinner) in the middle. Avoids the crush at even the busiest times of the year, AND the long park hours make it easier to see more even with this strategy than shorter hours on “low” crowd days.
Also, it’s not just the rides and crowded walk ways that are a problem. Have you tried to buy something in a store with these crowds. I won’t wait in those kind of lines to buy souvenirs. And, have you tried to eat at a quick service with these crowds? You can’t even find a table to sit at to eat anymore. Disappointing all around.
WOW! Reading all of this Disappointment and Frustrations caused be Overcrowding is Hard To Take, and I’m a 61 yr old guy! Someone needs to forward this to the Board of Directors, or Something !
Mike, I agree, someone should alert upper management. The problem is, I think they already have this information, and either they’re working on a solution, or they think people will continue planning Disney vacations, no matter what.
I’m older, and most of my Disney trips are resort oriented. Rarely do I go to the theme parks. However, I do feel for families wanting a nice, uncomplicated theme park vacation. Planning is tedious (unless you actually enjoy that sort of thing), and even though you scheduled Fast Passes 60 days out, wait times are horrendous. Now factor in the unexpected…weather, illness, and the ever popular, frustration. I’ve see the meltdowns.
If you prepared ahead of time, did everything you were supposed to, the only thing left is to enjoy the trip, and expect stuff to happen. Don’t rush, and don’t plan it to the minute. Better people than I have said you can’t do it all.
My best advice is, if you think a Disney vacation is just too much trouble and will potentially cause you grief, either review what you want from your trip, or plan a different trip. There’s always the Grand Canyon.
I went the 9th to 19th and I was shocked at the crowd levels. There were a few days where it was comfortable, but not what I was expecting. A year of planning and reading and BAM! We had to change almost every part of our plans, centered around FP and we still did just fine. We avoid anything over an hour wait, forced to do Na’vi which said 85, it wasn’t, it was 60 including ride. Otherwise we used that FP+ to our advantage, and rider swap with my 2 year old and my kids got to do FoP 3 times, Space at least 3 times, Thunder more than I can count, 7D 4 times for them. I just hated the crowds in the walkways! That feeling that you can’t breathe when out in the open, it’s overwhelming at time. Hoping hurricane season will be a better fit for us!