The Dawn of a Temporary Disney Era
The changes and health safety protocol implemented during phased reopening of Walt Disney World’s parks and resorts–no nighttime spectaculars, parades, or meet & greets, reduced hours, advance reservation system for attendance, and more–will transform the guest experience this summer and beyond. You could even say it’s the dawn of a new Disney era.
We wouldn’t say that, but you could. For us, it feels more like the “dawn of a temporary abnormal season at Walt Disney World that is a necessary prerequisite to resuming a permanent sense of normalcy.” But that doesn’t roll off the tongue or evoke positive feelings of nostalgia quite the same way as “dawn of a new Disney era.”
There’s a lot of uncertainty on the near-term horizon at Walt Disney World. Fans have many questions to which they want answers and there’s a lot of apprehension about what the future holds for the parks. In thinking about this, I wanted to contextualize what lies ahead with a look back at another ‘era’ in Walt Disney World history. As it turns out, I didn’t have to look too far…
Last spring, Walt Disney World surprised everyone with the August 29 opening date of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge. At the time, it was widely believed that the land would open in late fall (because Disney said so!), with rumors pointing to a December debut in time for the holiday season.
Many diehard Walt Disney World fans who feared a “crowdpocalypse” situation upon the debut of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge had already booked fall vacations to experience the calm before the storm. Some had taken advantage of the Free Dining promo and had little choice in modifying their travel dates. A lot of fans were worried about being denied access to the parks because capacity would be limited and by lottery. The chorus of comments we received was almost exclusively complaints. Over 95% of readers were unhappy with this. Many threatened to cancel their trips, and a lot actually followed through on that.
Sound familiar?
For our part, we encouraged optimism back then. We advised guests that school schedules and weather were limiting factors on demand for early fall, and that crowds likely wouldn’t be nearly as bad as everyone feared. Our revised Walt Disney World crowd calendar (released well before the land opened at Disneyland or Walt Disney World) ranked September as the best month to visit for the remainder of the year.
When Extra, Extra Magic Hours were subsequently announced, we gushed about this offering. Not only would it be a fun opportunity to be in the parks before sunrise, but it was likely to feature low attendance because the vast majority of guests cannot or will not get up that early on vacation.
When Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opened and Extra, Extra Magic Hours debuted to some of the lowest crowds at Walt Disney World in years, we repeatedly encouraged readers to take a last-minute trip before the offering ended if at all possible. We booked several last-minute DVC nights to take full advantage.
To be clear and transparent (lest it seems like I’m straining a shoulder patting myself on the back), I’ve gotten a lot of predictions wrong over the years, including some with the reopening already (I did not expect Epcot to open before fall, and anticipated hotels reopening after the parks). However, I was dead-on with these predictions that bear more than a passing similarity to present circumstances.
Since the closure started, I’ve been going through unedited photos during my free time, and recently stumbled upon those from the last morning of Extra, Extra Magic Hours. (All of the dawn photos in this post are from that final November day of ExEMH. A totally empty Fantasyland is pictured above–that photo was shot about 30 minutes after park opening.)
That was one of our all-time best mornings in the parks, and those few months were a glorious run of great days at Walt Disney World. What lies ahead is obviously very different. Yet I cannot shake the feeling that it presents a similar opportunity.
Before I get all “embrace the silver lining” on you, I want to “get real” with you. Even though I’m looking on the bright side here, this most definitely is not all sunshine and rainbows.
If I were planning my family’s once in a lifetime trip to Walt Disney World, there’s no way I’d book it for July through October 2020. Even November and December are highly questionable. (If you’re trying to plan a summer vacation and Disney doesn’t work for you this year, check out my post: Why This Year Is Perfect for a National Parks Trip.)
If it were our first trip or even if we visited every few years, we’d likely be rescheduling for 2021. There’s the obvious hope for fewer rules/restrictions, plus entertainment and nighttime spectaculars resuming. It’s also a simple call because of Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. (In fairness, we would’ve chosen 2021 over 2020 even before all of this.)
As an annual visitor, I’d have pause depending upon the circumstances. Even with the inevitable discounts, Walt Disney World is an expensive vacation destination, and a lot of compromises and concessions are going to be required of visitors in the near-term. I’m not sure I’d be up for those, especially if I had small children or older family members.
Now that we’ve ruled out…pretty much everyone?…let’s get to the upside!
Crowds, or lack thereof. That’s the big advantage. While Walt Disney World has declined to offer official capacity limits, several comments from CEO Bob Chapek and others have suggested the cap will be around 20-30% of normal attendance.
With cuts to park capacity, there will also be reductions in ride capacity to accommodate physical distancing. This means that, at least in theory, the capacity reductions could cancel each other out, resulting in wait times comparable to normal numbers.
There are also worries that Disney will further reduce attraction throughput to save labor and operating costs. This is a legitimate concern given both past precedent and the fact that park hours are already being cut.
However, this is not what has been observed thus far at Shanghai Disneyland, even with significant cuts to ride capacity and park hours. There, wait times are less than half of their normal levels, and many attractions are veritable walk-ons.
Per the official app, posted wait times for headliner attractions such as Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, TRON Lightcycle Power Run, Peter Pan’s Flight, and Pirates of the Caribbean Battle for the Sunken Treasure are all frequently in the 10-40 minute range. Even Soaring, perpetually the park’s most popular ride, is usually under an hour. (Less than half its normal wait time.)
Equally as important, “crowds” in Shanghai Disneyland are non-existent. We’ve seen photos of Mickey Avenue (that park’s version of Main Street) totally devoid of people, and other areas of the park are sparse.
The idea of visiting Walt Disney World without crowds and congestion sounds fantastic to us. We love themed design and simply being there, and frequently stay late to savor the atmosphere. Being able to enjoy the ambiance for the entire day–even in the heat and humidity–really appeals to us. I’ve also been salivating at the idea of pristine park photography during the middle of the day, which is normally impossible.
Of course, there are obvious differences between Shanghai Disneyland and Walt Disney World.
For one, Florida has Disney Vacation Club resorts, and those are likely to hit a high occupancy rate even if the hotels don’t. Walt Disney World also has a passionate fanbase and ardent Annual Passholder population. By contrast, Shanghai only has a couple of hotels and Disney’s brand affinity is in its nascent stages.
The other side of the coin is that Shanghai only has one park to “soak up” guest demand, guests there are accustomed to wearing masks (so there’s little resistance), and 300 million people live within three hours of the park by car or train.
By contrast, Walt Disney World has 4 parks to absorb guests, people are already cancelling trips due to health safety requirements, and aside from a modest local population, the vast majority of visitors will need to book and take flights to visit Florida.
These are all significant hurdles for Walt Disney World that Shanghai Disneyland simply does not face. On balance, this all suggests to me that Walt Disney World’s crowds during the initial months of reopening will resemble those in Shanghai–with Walt Disney World potentially having lower crowd levels.
Then there’s what has been observed at Disney Springs thus far. Aside from the World of Disney store’s opening day, when eBay pirates docked their ships and stormed the store, Disney Springs has been totally devoid of crowds. Read Our “Ghost Town” Experience at Disney Springs for an idea of how it has looked.
Of course, just as there are differences with a theme park halfway around the world and Walt Disney World, so too are there between theme parks and an outdoor mall. Nevertheless, this is all instructive, and the best “data points” that we have.
Perhaps the best recent data points for Walt Disney World’s reopening come from California, and the months leading up to Disneyland’s Diamond Celebration several years ago. (We could look further back and see the same with Disney California Adventure during its massive overhaul and reimagining.) This is probably a more apt domestic comparison than Disney Springs or Extra, Extra Magic Hours because visiting pre-Diamond Celebration or during DCA’s transformation entailed a similar compromise.
In the ~5 months leading up to the Diamond Celebration, entertainment at Disneyland was incredibly limited (the blink and you’ll miss it fireworks show was a joke that disappointed virtually everyone who waited more than 5 minutes for it), Sleeping Beauty Castle was behind a giant scrim, and way more attractions than normal were down for refurbishment. It was a rough stretch and, at the time, we discouraged tourists from visiting.
However, it was also absolutely glorious. In retrospect, I’d gladly take that stretch of months over the chaos that followed for the next few years (I loved Paint the Night, but not that much). Disneyland’s popularity exploded thanks to all of the new entertainment and offerings and the park became uncomfortably crowded.
Prior to the Diamond Celebration, crowds were incredibly low, wait times were minimal, it was easy to dine wherever, and there was a sense of optimism in the air about the future. This last element should not be dismissed, and I’d expect the same to be true at Walt Disney World the next few months.
After months of misery being stuck at home, those guests who do choose to accept the limitations and visit Walt Disney World anyway will be enthusiastic just to be there. Rather than sporting “Most Expensive Day Ever” shirts, people will be less cynical and ready to have some fun again.
Many others think there will be disputes or grumbling about new rules–I empathically disagree. That’s happening online now. In park, it will filter itself out via self-selection of attendees. The vast majority of those who proceed with vacation plans will be doing so not with the intent of breaking rules for a week–they’ll be doing so because they really need a vacation, and will be happy to escape the real world.
Admittedly, we also come at this from a different perspective than many people. Paradoxically, we are not huge planners even though we offer a wealth of resources for that. We welcome the return of more spontaneity to Walt Disney World with open arms and hope some of these changes are permanent. (See our Being Spontaneous at Walt Disney World post for more on the importance of this.)
We also think it’s absurd to be expected to know where we want to eat 6 months ahead of time (see our post: The Case for Sleeping on Advance Dining Reservations), prefer making day-of FastPass selections, and are not particularly keen on the Disney Dining Plan (save for certain circumstances). Basically, all of the cancellations announced the other day bring Walt Disney World’s planning process in line with that of Disneyland, and we far prefer the latter’s approach.
Many readers have remarked that there’s nothing magical about all of the new rules or changes Disney is implementing. This is a fair point (to a degree), but it’s also the temporary abnormal–a necessary compromise if you want to enjoy some aspects of public life for the next year or so while the country is still in the midst of a pandemic. Your entire life is going to be full of compromises; while Disney offers a “bubble” and feelings of reassurance removed from daily life, it is still very much located within the real world.
In any case, we think there’s nothing magical about planning a weeklong vacation down to the minute months in advance; many fans have just been conditioned by Disney to view that as normal. For the first time in ages, a Walt Disney World trip should now feel like an actual vacation, with spontaneity and the freedom to relax. (That’s true even with the temporary protocol in place.) For many, this will be a very different way of doing Disney and will require an adjustment. You might just end up liking this laid back approach more!
We embrace new ways of experiencing Walt Disney World. Prior to becoming locals, we would try to find a new “angle” for each trip to keep things fresh. It was a fun challenge, and we’d create artificial impediments or themes to force ourselves to try new things.
Even more recently, we’ve done things like this (see our “SS Harbor Beach Club Strategy“). The upcoming changes present new obstacles to navigate and I am, perhaps weirdly, looking forward to making lemonade out of lemons and finding fresh ways to do Disney during this unprecedented time. Among other things, I’m really looking forward to more resort time and ways to make the most of those pricey places to stay.
It should go without saying, but that’s not going to be everyone’s approach–nor is it even normal. Many frequent Walt Disney World visitors go for the sense of familiarity, to relive past experiences, or with certain-must dos in mind. The next several months–maybe the next couple of years–are going to alter a lot of that.
If certain components of the Walt Disney World experience being absent (or the addition of new requirements) make it a non-starter for you, nothing written here is going to change your mind–nor should it.
Rather, what we’ve attempted to do here is offer some degree of ‘grounded optimism’ amidst a sea of sadness. It’s easy to be pessimistic right now–the news is a nonstop barrage of negative stories, a lot is changing, the future is uncertain, and many compromises will be necessary as we go forward. Some (many!) people should simply opt out and cancel their upcoming Walt Disney World vacations in light of this. There’s no amount of upside or spin that can change that.
However, what is getting lost in the chorus of complaints is the potential upside. Just because it’s going to be a bad time for many people to visit doesn’t mean it’s a bad time for everyone. (To the contrary, precisely because it’s a bad time for so many means it’s likely to be a good time for those who can make it work.) Ultimately, we’ll put our money where our mouths are on this–we’ve already booked several DVC resort stays in the last week and are dreaming up ways to leverage the current circumstances to our advantage. With that said, we would recommend choosing travel dates very carefully, and we’ll be back with Part 2 of this post tomorrow to discuss exactly that. Stay tuned!
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Will you be visiting sooner rather than later, likewise hoping to make lemonade out of lemons and do Disney differently? Or, will you hold off, not viewing the current value proposition or guest experience as being workable for you? Do you agree or disagree with our perspective? A variety of viewpoints are welcomed here, but we will not tolerate insults, arguing, or politically-charged comments. Additionally, please do not debate the efficacy of health safety policies—all such comments (for, against, otherwise) will be deleted. Those arguments are played out and isn’t the appropriate forum for that.
Thanks for the post – you have articulated a conversation I’ve had in my head very well. Due to postponement of other activities, our late July/August schedule is pretty busy. But I’ve been debating whether a long-weekend type visit would be worth the price of flights or not.
Thank You Tom I’m a South Florida resident and Passholder and we usually plan our trip last minute and get good deals at Swan/Dolphin. I can’t wait to relax at the hotel since we usually do that and go to one of the parks in the evening. Maybe we can finally try a sit down restaurant without a reservation. I agree we stick to doing things the old fashioned way, I’ve never booked a package and never will we have booked things the day of and always enjoy our trip.
Good article. I have not been a big fan of the increased need for planning at ever longer lead-times into the future. As a DVC member, our family’s last couple of trips have been morphing into less park time and more resort/hotel time. Our last family trip was this past June where we spent three full days just hanging out at a cabin at Copper Creek and didn’t go into the parks until later in the week. My kids are still talking about how much fun it was to move at the slower pace, watching the Electrical Water Pageant each night from the comfort of the Jacuzzi and snacking on room service munchies and going to the pool in heat of the day or shopping/lookie-looing at Disney Springs. We even took a Disney Bass Fishing excursion one morning (something I would do again in a heartbeat)!
With the cancellation of our trip last month due to Covid-19, we decided to book the upcoming Christmas Week (a time we had earlier decided to never go to WDW due to crowds). I expect (as you point out in your article) that the crowds will not be anywhere near the levels as in the past. Plus we will be looking for fun activities and family quality time outside of the parks and are taking my mother-in-law (87 years young) on this trip.
Does anyone know if we can change tickets and/or resorts and still get the 35% off? I may only want 2 or 3 days instead of four and I also might want a different resort.
Not at the moment. The last I heard you can only keep or cancel what you have. It’s not even linked to your discount; WDW just isn’t accepting new or modified reservations for the time being (except for DVCs). Of course, things are changing all the time.
Our vacation at Disney World is scheduled to start August 17, 2020.
We are staying at The Towers at Bay Lake at the Contemporary.
The only thing we are waiting to hear about is the pools. Will they be opened… ?
This is or deciding factor.
Pools open we go. Pools closed we cancel.
Is there any news on the pools ?
Hi Bob,
I’m not a DVC member, but I rented DVC points for my trip in December. I’ve heard from DVC members that on the DVC website that yes, pools will be open. They are unable to guarantee a theme park reservation for every day of your stay, and are therefore encouraging pool/resort days.
After the initial shock of all of the new restrictions and changes, I am starting to view things in a more positive light as well. Things will definitely be different, but I am trying to think of it as a “once in a lifetime” trip of a different sort. I never have, and probably never will experienced WDW with a mask before! As two “Childless Millennials” there is not much keeping us from still going as planned in October. We are still taking a wait and see approach though….if park hopping and MNNSHP is not allowed, we may have to rethink things as we only have three day tickets, and were counting on both of those to get everything in that we want!
The masks alone are a huge deterrent. We usually go in Nov/Dec, so the weather is excellent, but we do full days at the parks so wearing a mask the entire day is not my idea of a vacation. I can’t imagine anyone being able to do so in the July or Aug heat. We also like to park hop and we’ve benefited from advance planning of fast passes and free dining, so those are also two negatives and the crowd levels have never been a problem for us. We will wait til things are back to normal before spending thousands of dollars to be miserable.
Your overview are always well researched and insightful. I agree these new changes will result in less crowds and may make a visit during this time a more enjoyable one in some respects. My family has a vacation booked in early September. We are looking forward to experiencing Disney in this new normal. Thanks for all the good guidance your blog always provides.
I fondly remember the carefree days at Disney, before it was crowded and you had to plan everything in advance. From that aspect, I kinda look forward to the “new temporary “ experience. We are AP’s from IN / IL. We have an anniversary trip planned in August, but are on the fence about that. We have a big family trip planned for late November/ December, and are really looking forward to that one!
I think it’s fascinating the degree to which The Muppets have influenced your sense of humor and prose style,.. as in your riff on the title of this essay. You will likely self-deprecate but essentially you are making a living as a writer now. Quite an accomplishment,.. which is one reason there are far more lawyers.
We have visited Disneyland many times, and it is the park I grew up going to. I definitely prefer the spontaneity and flexibility it offers. We visited a couple of times when Disneyland first rolled out Maxpass, and it was wonderful. Allowed for minimal wait times without running all over the park to collect paper fastpasses and without planning my days 2 months in advance. I hope Disney World continues to shift in this direction moving forward.
While I agree with much of what you hope happens moving forward, I’m having a hard time accepting the rescinding of the free dining plans by Disney. In my immediate family, there are 3 separate annual Disney vacations that have been affected.
A great deal of money has been spent there in the past and happily, for the experience.
We were offered a package, accepted the terms and paid in full.
They should abide by it!
I feel blessed that we were able to get to Disney just before everything closed down. I’d be willing to do a long weekend to experience the reduced crowds during this period, maybe late Aug, but feel a bit more uneasy about flying than I do actually being in the parks, which may not be altogether rational. Probably just as easy or difficult to get sick at either place depending on my efforts to protect myself, in concert with Disney and the airlines’ efforts. But I’d need to know that I can definitely get a room onsite and can get into the parks (I don’t currently have a reservation). Then I’d be curious to see if any new discounts were offered.
Thanks for the article. We rebooked from the beginning of June to July 23. (Which now is showing to be a good choice.) My wife is still skeptical, but I think it could be an interesting experience. I’m the planner of the group, so it will definitely be different for me. There are only two things I’m concerned about. The pool being open at Beach Club. And being able to going into Epcot in the evening for have dinner. Oh, and wearing a mask in July in Florida ( I guess that’s three.)
Agree with you, (June 6 now July 28) we are at Yacht Club, and with no mention of any pools being open or resorts for that matter as each day ticks by we become a little more stressed. We have to fly down so it isn’t just an easy road trip. I would just like some more information as we are in the 57 day zone, and would enjoy a laid back trip, but also need to factor the costs into said laid back trip.
Great post. I will be looking forward to part two re: travel dates. Hopefully our Fall trip falls into your recommended date range, although if it doesn’t we can’t do anything to change the days (at least right now).
This temporary abnormal aside, I do think this will be the beginning of an era characterized by a steep decline in capital investment in the parks. In 20 years when Disney+ has a documentary reflecting on these events I think the 2010’s will be shown as a period of expansion, and vast new offerings. The following “era”, i.e. the 2020’s will be shown as a period of stagnation/little in the way of expansion.
I have not read anything about the resort pools. Have you seen anything or have an idea of they will be open? Thank you.
Thanks Tom!
Your posts are always insightful and helpful. While the silver-lining isn’t enough to draw me back until things normalize a bit more, I thoroughly appreciate your positive outlook and balanced perspective.
One “disagreement” though: as a type-A and very OCD person, I do find “planning a weeklong vacation down to the minute months in advance” to be extremely magical. 😉
I love the time I spend planning all the minute details of a Disney Trip, and the knowledge that it helps reduce day-of variables and (more importantly) eliminates a lot of spur-of-the-moment indecision. For me, it feels like designing and building a the perfect train track route. Hard work, but once it is done I feel like I can just wind up my vacation “train”, set it on the track, and then sit back and relax as it runs its well-planned course. =) Sometimes minor course corrections are needed, but those are easy compared to the numerous decisions that would be required for an entirely spontaneous trip. Plus, I always schedule breaks and free time. This “planned spontaneity” has always worked like a charm for us. All that said, we don’t have kids, and I’m sure a trip with little ones looks a lot different than one with just me, hubby, and mother-in-law along.
Seconded, with the exception of dining–I have never liked those reservations being so far out. But yeah the months long process of getting the details just right has always given me a sense of satisfaction, especially when I get to watch my family enjoy it all.
We have kids, and the advanced planning makes things run smoother. But, I am an engineer, so…I get that it’s not for everyone. WDW was much more spontaneous 15 years ago when we didn’t have kids, and that was fun too, but we waited in a lot more standby lines back then.
I agree with you about planning. It’s a whole lot of the fun for me! 🙂
Already have reservations for 7/12-17. I was going to reschedule but after reading this I’m having second thoughts on that decision. We’ve been to Disney World many times and this article makes me think maybe it would be nice to have less people in the parks. What to do? What to do?
Thank you for sharing your spectacular photos!
I’m hoping your first DVC stay is before July 25th, my arrival date. I am anxious to read about your stay. I will be traveling solo since my sister’s family is postponing till next year. My circumstances are completely different. This is basically a free trip for me. My round-trip airfare from Rhode Island is just $88. I already have an active annual pass, and the waitlist request for my missing night at the BoardWalk came through. I don’t have to switch resorts mid-trip!
My Via Napoli reservation has NOT been cancelled, possibly because it’s a third party. I’m excited to return to my happy place!
Thank you for striking a positive tone. This has been my Hope from day 1 of the closure. We have plans for November and I find myself hoping that the “Temporary Restrictions” remain in place until then. I dream of capacity restrictions meaning less crowds and more spontaneity while health requirements mean only those willing to put a care for others first are willing to join my family and I in the parks. I’m hoping those who aren’t of a like mind vote with their wallet and find another place to spend their vacations this year.
I’m with you!
I’m a physician in Pa, and would love to go where concentrated numbers of people are “following the rules”!
Masks, social distancing, and maybe less crowds? Bring it on!
(I will admit to being super bummed that my dining reservations have magically disappeared, and I don’t even know how to not park hop).
But we’ll be there in October barring any other crazy.