Explaining Increased Disney World Crowds
Upon returning from spending a couple of weeks at Walt Disney World earlier this year, I wrote an article titled, “Is There No Such Thing as an Off-Season?” In that, I speculated that wait times had increased by about 25% at the beginning of the year, and offered a number of explanations, with the mains one being the global economy, improved consumer confidence, and Disney’s manipulation of crowds.
Magic Kingdom waits hovered around 20% higher year-over-year in January and February, were ~15% higher in March, and have leveled out since. These wait times are fascinating for a number of reasons, but most interesting (for the purposes of this post, at least) is that the spikes in crowds from the beginning of the year has been “corrected.” With only four full months of the year in the books it’s probably too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but I think it is interesting to consider the why.
There was an abnormal spike in crowds at the beginning of the year, at a time when 95% of major school districts in the United States were in session. Crowd levels averaged around a 7/10, which was higher than the entirety of the summer season (Memorial Day to Labor Day) with posted wait times that were around 25% inflated year-over-year. Most fascinating is that the biggest abnormalities in crowds were occurring on weekdays rather than weekends.
A couple of explanations for this are the improving economy, consumer confidence resulting from the tax cut, and Disney manipulating capacity. One thing Walt Disney World can do is decrease operational hourly ride, to a level significantly lower than normal.
Side note: we’ve explained this before, but many Walt Disney World attractions have a huge difference between theoretical hourly ride capacity (THRC), which is how many guests could be cycled through assuming 100% efficiency, and operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC), which is the “real world” number a ride can expect to achieve thanks to humans being human, and all of that.
THRC is like a magical rock troll: not something that exists in reality. Nothing operates at 100% efficiency, as guests can unload slowly, pauses have to be made for accessibility reasons, etc. Another reason that OHRC is often lower is because Disney manipulates it. In the past this has occurred for maintenance or because capacity was under-utilized. In the last couple of years, there have been reports of Disney manipulating OHRC to save operational costs–less wear and tear on attractions and less staffing.
Len Testa of TouringPlans.com appeared on the DIS Unplugged Podcast to discuss Disney’s manipulation of crowds. The main explanation Len offers for Disney’s manipulation of capacity is a mandate for Parks & Resorts to decrease operating expenses. This makes complete sense, and is wholly consistent with what we’ve observed from Parks & Resorts for the past few years.
Walt Disney World has seen high capex numbers over the past few years, and there is no end in sight to the ballooning capex numbers between now and 2021. One way to help “offset” that to improve the appearance of Parks & Resort’s financials has been to create new revenue streams. Another has been to decrease opex.
Additionally, Josh over at easyWDW.com has done a series of posts comparing crowds this year versus last, culminating in his recent look at wait times around Magic Kingdom. Both of them reached the same conclusion (and more than an anecdotal one) about the uptick in crowds earlier this year.
This isn’t just a theory–Disney has stated as much in financial calls with investors. Disney getting over-zealous with off-season cost-savings by decreasing OHRC too much would not surprise me in the least. It wouldn’t be the first time Walt Disney World tried to cut too much fat and ended up hitting bone.
I respectfully disagree with Len’s theory that the manipulation of wait times at the beginning of the year is a scheme by Disney to justify the upcoming multi-day tiered price change (let’s be real–it’s going to be an increase, not just a “change,” for every season except value). This seems like a stretch, and to Len’s credit, he does call it tin foil territory.
Personally, I don’t think Disney needs a good (public-facing) reason to justify price increases…or any reason at all. So long as their internal financial projections justify it, they’ve got sufficient rationale (from their perspective). Guests will project their own explanations onto these increases, and an explicit rationale from Disney probably isn’t going to move the needle on the guest perception.
Most people who form strong opinions about price increases are going to be at far ends of a spectrum: super fans who will fall over themselves to offer a favorable explanation as to why they should pay more, or cynics who liken Disney to a money-grubbing tourist trap and will assume the worst. Everyone else is somewhere in the large middle ground of “indifference” (at least until they book a trip and have sticker shock).
Look back at this Orlando Sentinel article from several years ago that compiled statements from Universal and Disney justifying their price increases. I would (like to) think that most consumers would see through these statements as PR fluff. Likewise, I’d like to think the same of whatever rationale Disney proffers for this year’s and next year’s increases.
As with most PR fluff, I think justifications for price increases are likely to be forgotten by most consumers within a few days after the price increase announcement. Only the zealots are going to remember a statement about the goal of reducing crowding, and I’m guessing those people are going to visit no matter what. Given that, it seems like quite the elaborate ruse to cause an artificial spike in crowds for the sake of justifying a price increase.
Moreover, if comments on general news sources are any indication, most readers already assume Walt Disney World is crowded and unpleasant. Not only is it an elaborate ruse, it’s a detrimental one. Crowds no doubt impact guest satisfaction surveys, ratings given on sites like TripAdvisor, and long-term perceptions…which are reflected in things like reader comments.
So where does that leave us as to why it felt so busy at Walt Disney World early this year in what was traditionally an off-season time? Here, we can accept the conclusion that attractions were being operated at less than full capacity without accepting the premise that this was to artificially increase crowding. And we do.
There are a few reasons that this reduction of capacity could have occurred. First, there’s the cost-savings angle; operating attractions at lower capacity would require less staff and less maintenance, both of which would save the company money. This is an explanation that we also most definitely accept.
Second, after our ‘Is There an Off-Season?’ post, we heard from a couple of Cast Members working in the parks that internal attendance forecasts (that are used to determine staffing, among other things) were off, sometimes by nearly 10,000 guests per day.
I can’t even begin to explain why this would have occurred, but it could be that internal forecasts were intentionally lowballed by management because those numbers are what drives ride vehicle deployment and staffing levels at attractions. That’s a wild guess.
It could as simple as Disney being caught flat-footed. I think this is likely closer to the reality of what happened, and Disney whiffing on attendance projections compounded what otherwise might have been perceived as “reasonable” opex cuts to make for a situation that felt very crowded.
Finally, there’s the possibility that Walt Disney World was (or is) simply understaffed and they allocated staffing resources to weekends. In our Disney World Union Wage Negotiations post, we mention that there are 3,500+ unfilled positions at Walt Disney World, and aggressive sign-up bonuses are being offered in an attempt to fill them. Being short-staffed on the attractions side could cause a decrease in OHRC, which would explain a lot of this.
This is all interesting if you’re a Disney geek trying to explain why a time of year that has been consistently uncrowded was suddenly busy, but doesn’t really help if you’re planning a Walt Disney World vacation and wondering to what degree you can rely on crowd calendars.
The good news here is that since January and February, wait time numbers and crowd reports have more or less returned to normal. It would seem that normal and peak season crowds are far less likely to see such spikes, so if you’re traveling during a time of year that was not previously a ‘dead’ time of year, you will not see a comparable (percentage-wise) increase in wait times.
The bad news is that without having a clear picture on the why of the January and February spike, we cannot say with certainty whether other consistently uncrowded times of year like late August, September, and mid-November will see similar spikes. If this is simply a matter of Walt Disney World manipulating crowds to save on opex during times of year that are consistently uncrowded, those would be obvious targets. (Although I would hope and expect Disney to use a defter touch with future manipulations.) If other variables played a significant role in the early 2018 crowds, perhaps we won’t see comparable spikes in the fall. Unfortunately, without a definitive explanation as to why crowds spiked before, we’ll have to wait and see how things play out.
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Your Thoughts
Have you noticed a more pronounced uptick in crowds recently? Do you have any theories as to why this is occurring? Do you agree or disagree with our take? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Down at WDW the past few days and crowds are very light. 15 min wait at Soarin at 10
a.m. it’s been great vs this past January and February.
My wife and I have been in the parks over the last week or so. We noticed something odd going on. After getting on and off the 7DMT ride in 30 minutes (8-8:30 a.m.) we saw Peter Pan at only 20 minutes Stand By wait. This seemed unusually low for this ride. Especially after the MK had been open for about forty minutes. We got on the line and walked completely through the queue (non-stop) and were on the ride in about five minutes. We have no idea why it was so easy. We thought the Cheer Leading and Dance competitions were over a week ago. But the parks were full a dance and cheer squads. Do they stay for a week after? Many, many tour groups were present in the parks. We encountered chanting groups on the MK ferry. Combine this with the terrible rains we have had over the last week, and it just had to be a miserable week for WDW guests. Since we are FL AP s, we are thirty days or more behind WDW resort guests as far as Fast Passes go. Despite that, my wife says she has had better luck getting desirable fast passes on the days when the Resort Crowd levels as well as the Park crowd levels are a 7 or 8 or higher. Go figure? Hard to believe we actually did experience crowd and park levels that were a one during the first two weeks of December. But that was long long ago. In a WDW far, far away. Lastly, we have spoken with so many guests who had there children with them while on line. So many parents are opting to take their kids out of school. Rather than fight the summer crowds. There are kids everywhere all the time at WDW. I think Len has to some new research into crowd levels and trends.
Not sure what you are talking about when you refer to ‘boost in economy’ and “tax cuts”. Since those cuts were only for the top 10% of Americans that doesn’t really have an impact on most people. Plus, the market has been having major highs, and major lows- so I would not consider our country having faith in our economy at all. That doesn’t mean its going to stop people from vacationing with their family. There has been an overall cultural shift when it comes to ‘family vacations’. Families see the value in vacationing far more than they ever have, and they are willing to put there money towards it more than ever (regardless of the economic climate).
Second, there is a large number of people who hate Disney because of the prices and large crowds. This makes room for another amusement/entertainment park to swoop in and grab these non disney loving people who still want a fun family vacation. Who will that be?
Annie,
Sorry, but political feelings aside, you have your facts wrong. Consumer confidence hit an 18 year high in March and the Tax Policy Center, a D.C. think tank, has produced a study that indicates that almost all taxpayers will see a benefit from the new tax law. While it is true that the wealthiest get the biggest break (they also pay the most tax) middle-income Americans will get somewhere between $780 and $1,500. While that may not be enough to pay for an entire WDW vacation, it would sure be enough to make a significant dent should they choose to use it for that. Therefore, I think Tom’s point is correct and is certainly a contributing factor to the increased crowds.
So basically by 2027, when middle-class America’s benefit from the GOP tax bill expires, we should be able to see a decrease in consumer confidence, and therefore Disney crowd levels. Win!
Magic is definitely slowly leaving. With increased crowds/line wait times, it makes for more of a frustrating, miserable experience for most. I remember the days when POTC never had a line. Seriously, you could almost walk on, or maybe a 10-15 minute wait. Now, it’s 70-90 minutes wait time? I guess Disney won’t change, until it hits them where it hurts, in the pocketbook. I’m appalled at the “slow down” of rides to help the bottom line, thus making it miserable for their customers. Here’s hoping all of that mess will be changed, soon, but who knows??
The price increases are also crazy. A couple years ago, I booked AKL for $3,800 for a week, with free dining. This year, AKL was a minimum of $6,000 the first time I looked, and more along the lines of $10,000 the 2nd time I looked. I ended up booking All Star Sports for guess what…..$3,800. I can’t even….
I completely agree with your first line. I brought 110 high school seniors to Disney World in March 2018 for their Senior Class Trip. The overwhelming majority of students said that they would never go back and couldn’t understand why people loved Disney World so much. It was so sad to hear.
We went to the kiosks to get help setting up our fast passes and were told by a Disney employee that all fast passes were used up the day we were there,which was the last week of March on a Wednesday of2018. Our kids only got to ride 4 rides all day because of wait times that were between 175 & 190 minutes. It’s no wonder they do not want to go to back. It is really unreasonable to expect people to wait that long consistently.
By listening to park patrons leaving the park that day it sounded like a lot of miserable people leaving “the happiest place on earth.” When we brought our son in the ’80s
He got his picture taken with almost every disney character there was. This year our grandkids didn’t get to experience any of that. As a matter of fact the only Mickey they saw was on stage hundreds of feet back.
Disney has always slowed rides in slower times of the year to keep people in the parks longer. Now that you have people shifting due to tickets being priced on season you could have same amount of staff or less with cuts and more people going after lower ticket price times of year. Also concerning kids being in school. A shift over the last 5-6 years has a lot of kids being home schooled so they can travel any time of the year. This could be a factor of summer slowing and other times of the year increasing.
There are several reasons why the crowds were higher than previously in January and February, in no particular order:
– The new dance competition building at ESPN WWOS has increased the capacity for dance and cheerleading competitions by as much as 30% this year. January and February are prime competition months, but operations was unprepared for this increase (they are better prepared now). Also, Disney is busing many of the competitors directly from the events to the parks during “uncrowded” times (note the number of girls wearing their competition tags around their necks as you’re walking around AK or Epcot), increasing park crowds.
– Every new time share room opened is another room that is full every day of the year, and those people need to do something with their time. Early 2018 saw a lot of new time share inventory come on line.
– International visits to Orlando are up considerably this year, and there are a lot of displaced Puerto Ricans that are still in Orlando that want to see WDW during the value season.
– Cancelling running in Anaheim has upped the number of people at WDW during running events, even though the total number of registered runners is capped by RunDisney at similar levels as last year. This is due to the large number of runners that come out for the atmosphere during official events, even if they are not formally registered.
I think you’re absolutely right, especially about the cheer competition and runDisney impact. We went the first week of May, which should have been a low crowd time. As we got closer to the date, Touring Plans kept uping the predicted crowd levels. When we first booked, the crowd levels were supposed to be 1-3s most of the time. By the time we went, they were set at all 6-7s. When we got there, everything was overrun with cheerleaders. It wasn’t a big issue for me because they were mostly well behaved and I had made my fastpasses and ADRs well in advance, but if I had just shown up expecting low crowd levels, I think I would have been very disappointed.
I’m glad I’m not the only person to think Disney is all about the money & doesn’t care about the visitors experience any more. In time it will catch up to them. We couldn’t use the fast passes even though they advertise them.Our wait times were 175 minutes to 190 minutes. We took our grandkids out of school a week before spring break thinking this might help but it didn’t. I hate to say it but never again,not only from my perspective, but I don’t think I could drag my grandchildren there.
You probably did something wrong if you weren’t able to use fast passes…
I feel that there is no off season anymore. I even see more people staying late after the park closes. This really does a number on my nite time picture taking.
When would you predict would be a better time to visit in 2019, February or September? I was planning February but with this new pattern, now I’m thinking maybe September would be a better time? It’s a first trip for both my daughter and husband so I’m trying to spend the least money and see the smallest crowds!
September is tricky for weather. Keep in mind you will have daily thunder storms- some short, some that last all night.
Do yourself a favor and plan something else instead. You can go to almost any other park and spend way less and not be aggravated in the end. Don’t say you were not warned.
Well this explains a ton… we’ve been going to Disney World for years. I realize the off season from the days of the mid 90s (or even early 2000s) is fat gone, but I don’t think any time of year can be considered an off season anymore. Our final shot at finding an off season week was the first week of December last year… fail. The crowds and wait times felt like our last trip in July. Stayed for a week and the times or crowds never slowed. Horribly disappointing for a family of six hoping to really hit the rides like a true off season used to be. As much as I love Disney, I should never ever forget this is all about a dollar and no longer a magical vacation for out family. Time to find a new annual vacation for the family especially for the money.
Wait times have been up. Before our last trip, I had never seen Space or Pirates with more than a 50 minute wait. Both were up to 70 minutes at one point and this was the second week of May when crowds should’ve been lower. At the time, we thought it was due to a couple of days of rain and other rides being shut down (still could’ve been), but we also felt this way in January and April. We thought it was just because of Pandora since we hadn’t been for a couple years before that, but that didn’t quite make since. This does. I’ve also noticed a lot longer wait times for maintenance of rides. Big Thunder was down for nearly half a day and was closed at open. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a scheduled closure they just didn’t tell us about to appease us. It’s all speculation I suppose, but the Disney addict in me would sure love to know the real answers.
Lets not forget that many of us fans are now much older and we travel to WDW without children and therefore, we can go during school sessions. That means that more of us are going during less traveled times that causes a spike in attendance.
I laugh when I hear people say it is too crowded and too expensive. If it were too expensive then it would not be too crowded and vice versa. My suggestion to anyone is go when you want to go but b prepared that it will be crowded and expensive so plan accordingly. I, for one, can not see why anyone would want to swelter in the summer heat to be in long lines and paying high prices to do so. Go when the weather is nice. You will sill pay high prices and wait in long lines but you at least won’t be sweating the whole time.
Some of us have no choice BUT to go in summer. I have a school age child (8 years old), and a wife who is a teacher, so our vacations naturally are based on the school calendar…which normally means summer. We did take a short (4 day) trip during “Jersey Week” in 2016, as my wife for the first (and only) time in her 24 year career had an entire week off (rather than a 4 day weekend) during “teacher’s convention,” as did our child.
Unlike a number of parents, we value education more than taking our child out of school to “beat the crowds” for vacation purposes.
I guess we still don’t know why there’s a spike in attendance in January and February since obviously Disney didn’t plan for it (or intentional cutbacks) and they are already short on staff. Best time to go continues to be in May in the lull between Spring Break and the High Summer Season. They prepare for the crowds with a slightly lower attendance and capacity.
I cannot in good conscious recommend a Disney Trip to friends and neighbors when Disney is charging more and offering reduced capacity, thus driving up wait times. Moves like this make it abundantly clear that the most important consideration is profit above all else. There is a point at which greed eclipses the full measure of profitability. IMHO Disney is eroding their brand and their future with decisions like this. I feel this under-staffing/reducing capacity was an intentional move by the bean counters who live or die under the mandate to pump up the stock price at all costs.
Absolutely. Over the years we have noticed a decline in that “magic” that WDW once offered. But it has recently diminished at an astounding rate. I don’t track all the CEO moves and administration of the brand, but can tell over the past 3-4 years that there has been a huge change in something.
I agree 100%! My theory…branding and target demographics are aiming for a more mid to low mid-range of clientele…those who are willing to put up with a poorer quality experience. Their brand is becoming a fast food equivalent of theme park experiences, which is really sad.
The “Pleasant Factor” of a Disney environment on both coasts has become an
“Unpleasant Factor.” My daughter in So Cal & her friends refuse to drag their children through DLP now as well. It’s just not enjoyable for anyone with the increased masses.
We were at Hollywood Studios Monday 30th April and the wait for Toy story never dropped below 70mins all day and there were no fast passes available, the queues were unbelievable
We were at MK Friday 4th May and the wait for Space Mountain never dropped below 70mins we didn’t even bother going over to it so don’t know if this was a true time or not
There were no fastpasses for anyone at Toy Story then, it has been down from 3 tracks to 1 as they are moving the entrance into Toy Story Land. So that’s why wait times were high.
Just got back from WDW yesterday and crowd manipulation is real. It was most noticeable at HS a few days ago when the posted wait for TSM was 45 mins and the actual wait was less than 10. Headed over to ToT right after that with a posted wait of 55 minutes and yet we walked right on. I always knew they inflated the wait times, but I was (pleasantly) shocked at the ToT difference!
We went this past February 4-11 and were surprised by the size of the crowds at the off-time. We chose that time, pulling our kids out of school, because we thought it would be less crowded and we like to avoid the heat of Orlando and escape the cold of Kentucky. Towards the start of our week, it was more crowded than we expected but it was nothing compared to our 2/10 day at MK when we thought that we shouldn’t have even bothered going that day.
We were there from 5/6-5/12 and thought crowds were very reasonable. Never waited more than 20ish minutes for a ride using fastpasses and rope drop. We looked at the touring plan levels for our days and the highest was an 8/10 for AK (and I never would have guessed that high). The rest were 6 or less, with the lowest at HS and MK being a 3. We had a great trip and would definitely choose that time of year to go again.