Is There an Off-Season at Disney World?
For ages, people have been saying, “there’s no off-season at Walt Disney World anymore.” It’s true that almost every year for just under a decade, annual attendance has increased. In most cases, this has been 1% to 5% bumps (per TEA reports), but it’s still noticeable–especially in aggregate. (Last updated February 4, 2019.)
During our visits to Walt Disney World last January and February, we were shocked by the crowds. Data showed that wait times were up over 20% year over year, and the parks felt even more crowded than that due to reduced capacity on attractions and shorter operating hours.
Wait times actually decreased by modest amounts in the second half of the year, which is especially noteworthy because Magic Kingdom operating hours also decreased, with fewer early openings and late closings (the times of day most likely to have shorter wait times. That’s the good news–the bad news is that wait times were once again elevated in January 2019.
In the original incarnation of this post, we speculated that last year’s spike was due to a range of factors, from shifting school schedules to James Cameron to the economy and consumer confidence. In our subsequent post, Explaining Increased Crowds at Walt Disney World, we offered Disney’s manipulation of ride capacity as the most likely scenario.
It would appear that Walt Disney World is up to these same games again in 2019, as average wait times were frequently higher in January than they were last October, November, or December. Given that January used to be a sleepy time of year that we referred to as the holiday hangover, this is quite the change.
In addition to ride capacity, Walt Disney World has mastered the art of manipulating crowds, incentivizing guests to travel during what used to be the off-season. Perhaps the biggest exemplar of this is the Walt Disney World Marathon, and we should note that it occurred almost a full week later than normal in January 2019, which undoubtedly had a more prolonged impact on crowds.
This is nothing new–Disney has been effectively manipulating crowds for (at least) the last 5 years, refining its approach along the way. This would explain October and early December gradually becoming more crowded over the course of several years, but not the surge that has been evident more recently.
When analyzing crowds of today, it’s also worthwhile to look at past trends, particularly in tandem with the economy. During the global financial crisis, attendance at Walt Disney World held relatively flat. This was an impressive feat during the Great Recession, and led to a view of the parks as recession-proof. (In part, this led to the investments we are now seeing–Parks & Resorts was viewed as a stable and reliable business unit.)
Since the economic recovery began, attendance at Walt Disney World has soared. Magic Kingdom’s attendance numbers have climbed by over 3 million annual guests during that time, per TEA reports. This is in spite of pretty steep ticket and hotel price increases, neither of which have done much to slow attendance growth.
This is one big reason why “there’s no such thing as off-season at Walt Disney World” has become such a popular refrain. Not only were crowds significantly lower during the Great Recession, but operating hours were actually longer. (Remember when Evening Extra Magic Hours used to be 3 hours?!)
This all brings us back to the titular question: is there an off-season at Walt Disney World? Last year, we answered that there is not much of an ‘off-season’ in traditional parlance. That seems to be true thus far in early 2019, but there are signs that there’s still an off-season.
For starters, last fall was particularly slow, leading us to write another article, “All Quiet on the Crowds at Disney World Front.” We’d expect that trend to continue in 2019, especially as many guests are postponing trips until Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens.
While we are anticipating crowds to be bonkers once Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens (likely in November or December 2019), one big silver lining is that in the months leading up to it, crowds should be pretty soft. We’re already seeing signs of this with Walt Disney World dumping hotel inventory on Priceline Express and releasing Free Dining several months early.
However, one unfortunate byproduct of Walt Disney World’s sometimes aggressive reductions of ride capacity is that it’s very difficult to predict what wait times will look like, even on days when attendance is markedly lower. If attractions have their capacity cut in half, that can have a huge impact on wait times–even on less busy days.
Due to this, aggressive discounts we’re likely to see this year, and the big unknown of when Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge will debut, I would have an increasing amount of skepticism when relying upon crowd calendars. I think things have been trending in this direction for a few years now, actually. Crowd calendars still have utility at a high level when considering over-arching trends–and when viewed in tandem with weather and seasonal events–but I would not put my full faith in day-by-day, park-by-park scores. Relying upon these for planning your travel dates is an invitation for disappointment.
This sentiment is not a shot at other planning resources. Our own Best and Worst Months to Visit Disney World post underscores the low crowds of January, dubbing them as “lethargic.” If what we experienced in January 2019 is lethargic, I fear what Easter or October will look like. In the few years since we first published that post, I’ve revised its rankings several times, as crowds continue to grow and shift. After waiting in line 20 minutes for the TTA PeopleMover in January and seeing several attractions with 2-3 hour waits on a regular basis, I am about ready to throw my hands up in defeat.
There was a time when the past was the best predictor of the future when it came to Walt Disney World crowds. Data from previous years coupled with park hours, school calendars, etc., could produce reliable forward-looking predictions about Walt Disney World crowds. I’m not sure to what extent that remains true. There seems to be far more fluidity and unpredictability to crowds now.
As for whether the concept of an off-season at Walt Disney World will truly be a thing of the past after Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge opens, I don’t think so. What the robust economy giveth, the sluggish economy taketh. (Although not entirely, see the ‘recession-proof’ line above.) It’s hard to envision the economy continuing its current trajectory unabated, indefinitely. To the contrary, a ‘correction’ (to put it mildly) is due at some point in the medium-term.
When that happens, either attendance will fall or discounting will be more aggressive to maintain current numbers, or both. With each price increase and upcharge offering, Disney is gradually shifting its reputation to being a luxury travel destination. That’s a perception those who are firmly in the middle class–a demographic visiting now in strong numbers because they are doing well–will likely remember if when there’s a recession.
What I think is less likely is a return to the off-season crowd levels of the aughts and decades prior. Those days are gone, unlikely to return at any point in the foreseeable future. Walt Disney World has grown and changed considerably (a reality that’ll be further cemented with the opening of Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge and the additions of the 50th Anniversary after that), as have the sophistication of the company’s marketing and crowd-spreading efforts.
For long-time Walt Disney World fans, this might all sound like bad news. Selfishly, we all want our visits to be relatively crowd-free. We also want the parks to continue growing and evolving (except when our own nostalgia is threatened). It’s all a delicate needle to thread. While I have some trepidation about what the future might hold in terms of crowdedness and pricing, I’m also incredibly optimistic about the money being invested into the parks right now, and how much better things will look for Walt Disney World’s 50th Anniversary. Frankly, if I had to choose between the lower crowd levels of a decade ago coupled with the creative stagnation of that era, or the all-around growth of today (and the near-future), I’ll choose the latter every single time. Absent of being able to pick the “right” dates on the calendar, there are still other ways to beat the crowds. At Walt Disney World just as in life, the times they are a-changing; you better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
Your Thoughts
What has your experience been with crowds at Walt Disney World recently? Have you encountered ‘dead’ weeks in the last two years? Do you agree or disagree with our take on the off-season? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing feedback about your experiences is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
where can i find the date that an article was written?
I love everything you write but i would also like to see the date at the top of the page :PP
We went 2018 end October until mid-December. Decided to miss Christmas period as we did it three years prior and it was so ridiculously busy. 2018 Was far more crowded than what we expected and we even left early some days as it was so bad, especially at the Food and Wine Festival, Epcot. Loved WDW back in the 1980/90’s but now I fear the pricing of tickets and food will eventually reduce the crowds down by the families Walt Disney planned would get enjoyment from the parks. I understand he did not want alcohol in the parks so would have been upset by sights and sounds of cross carers chastising children so they could sit and drink. All more money grabbing. Only going this year as we have annual ticket but expecting it will be last visit.
You can call it “reductions in ride capacity” or what it really is. Disney knows how to cut costs by deploying less CM s on lower crowd level days. As Florida AP s, we try to go into the parks as often as we can. But now (2019), it is getting almost impossible to get a FP for the top attractions thirty days out. We used to ride about a hundred Kilamanjaro Safaris a year. Now it is impossible for us to get a safari FP prior to 10 a.m.. Of course we go into AK early and try to get on a safari while the lions are still awake. Better still, walking around or standing. Only one side of the boarding station is open before 10 a.m. on a crowd level three or lower day. On one of those days, the wait time went from 5 minutes to over an hour in just fifteen minutes.. It got so bad that by 10 a.m., they finally added more CM s and supervisors and started herding people into the wheel chair accessible safari trucks. In addition to the cast member cut backs, the safari truck drivers have done an excellent job of informing all riders that many of the animals will be sleeping for most of the day. The word is out! Another observation we have made, is that many of the animals are not released into their respective areas until 9:30 a.m.. Our guess is more CM cut backs. We have adjusted our touring technique for the safaris by arriving very early, and letting people go ahead of us. Boarding a truck around 9:30 a.m. on both slow and crowded days. Then pray that an ostrich doesn’t close the entire attraction down for a half hour! Of course, there are always FP s for Navi River available on low crowd days.
The crowd calendar completely failed for us on our last visit February 2018 Mardi Gras week. I was expecting low-moderate crowds but every day, every park felt highly crowded. Our previous visit was April 2015 with less crowds and shorter wait times. I was expecting February to be even lighter than the April visit but that’s not what happened. I suppose the ride capacity issue was the cause. Both trips were still absolutely fun and have not deterred from vacationing at WDW in the future. I agree with the previous poster from Louisiana about July. Summer months are hot here in LA so I’ve been pondering a summer visit with days at the water parks or resort pool and late afternoons/nights in the theme parks.
Last night we waited 40 minutes to ride people mover which surprised us. We have seen a big change in wait times in all 4 parks….very frustrating.
Hi all! We live here and go to WDW A LOT! So, with no hard data, just subjective experience, I do see a trend. With the exceptions of the week prior, of, and after Easter (most school’s spring breaks) and the week before Christmas, after Christmas and (depending on which day of the week New Years falls), after New Years – the parks are less crowded on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays followed by Mondays. Saturdays and Sundays are almost always busy and Fridays are often busy too.
Hi Tom!
What are your thoughts on WEEKEND DAYS in the SUMMER? Should we avoid them because of local people crowds adding to the vacation crowds? Or do you think that weekends aren’t any different than weekdays during the summer?
Thank you!
Diann J.
Tom, fabulous article. Thanks for the insight.
I was at WDW mid-May 2018. The crowds weren’t too bad – I recall the longest ride wait time being the Avatar Navi River Journey at Animal Kingdom which was about 2 hours long (which, by the way, I do NOT recommend. SO boring.). For the longest wait time, I didn’t think this was too bad.
Reading all of these comments is discouraging. We were going to book our first ever Disney trip for this October but now I’m second guessing myself.
Marybeth, we were there last year in October (Halloween week) and didn’t think the parks were super crowded. In fact, we are going again this October.
Plan ahead by scheduling Fast Passes and dining reservations. Spend time relaxing at your resort pool, or take a few days off from the parks and go to a water park or Disney Springs. The main thing is to enjoy the moment with your family and realize you can’t do everything in one trip.
We were there in October last year during Halloween week as well. Crowds weren’t bad at all. Flight of passage was a crazy wait at about 1.5-2 hours but it’s been that way or more both times we were there. On our Epcot day we rope dropped Soarin’ as we didn’t have a fastpass for it. It didn’t get to above a 20 min wait until after lunch. Same thing with Test Track. We were shocked at how low the crowds were at all the parks after hearing how crazy October is. Other than Flight of Passage, our longest wait was for Splash Mountain that week at 35 min and that was at 4pm in the afternoon. Not saying you will have the same results this year, but I wouldn’t let the predicted crowds scare you off either. It’s still possible to have a good time, with good planning and use of fastpasses
Hi Marybeth! Just make good use of the WDW website and this blog! Planning is really everything when it comes to an enjoyable trip. In my experience, October is by no means empty but it also isn’t packed. Just be sure to hit those first day possible times like the 180 days for ADRs and the 30 days (with annual pass) or 60 days (staying on-site) and make your reservations. You can make them for your entire trip all at once after you have hit that 180 days out window for the first day of your vacation.
Hi Marybeth,
Don’t second guess, you will have an amazing time. For those who have been going to the parks for decades there is definitely a change in crowds (among many other aspects) but what doesn’t change is that it is an incredible experience that you and your family will love.
I believe this summer will be the off season. I have planned a trip during late July to take my son. Hotels are discounted, free dining is offered, both of which are signs Disney forecasts show the need to entice guests. The biggest sign for me is that there are still dinner reservations available at popular restaurants past the 180 daypoint. As of this morning I could book Be Our Guest, The Plaza, and Many others for 6:30 pm, and this is during a free dining offer. Tom I know you are not a fan of July because of the heat but those of us who live in Louisiana will battle the heat and humidity at home so the weather is certainly not a deterrent.
My husband and I were at WDW January 30-Feb 4. I remarked several times that it was much more crowded than I was expecting based on what I’d read on crowd calendars. For example, it was predicted to be 4,5, or 6; but I thought it felt more like at least a 7. I didn’t hate it bc I usually go when it’s supposed to be a 7 or 8, but it did seem busy to me. One good thing, we did enjoy several of the food booths at the Epcot Festival of Arts, and had shorter waits than what I was expecting for that. So the lines weren’t too bad; there were just tons of people walking around.
On an unrelated note, Tom, I thought of you when I noticed Country Bear merchandise (sweatshirts and socks, I think) in the corner of the “Frontier Trading Post” at Magic Kingdom.
I enjoy your blog and have learned a lot from you. Thanks.
Tom help, I always plan my park days based on crowd calendars and I rely heavily on your recommendations. Now I’m thrown for a loop when you say it’s an invitation for disappointment to follow the crowd calendars to choose my daily parks. What should I do instead? I typically follow the Sun MK or AK, Mon Epcot, Tue MK, Wed Epcot, Thur AK or HS, Fri AK, and Sat HS based upon my comparison of many crowd calendars, (this assumes no holidays, special events or school breaks). Is this still a safe general plan? I thought using crowd calendars was the best way to determine a general park to park plan 6-7 months in advance so I know what dining reservations to make. Is there a better method?
My family is going 4/21-4/27, which is the week after Easter. This is the only time we can go if we don’t want to pull the kids out of school. I am expecting the crowds to be unbearable, bordering on insane. So keeping that in mind, I really can’t be disappointed or surprised with high crowd levels. The only thing to surprise me would be LOWER than expected crowds. How’s that for positive thinking?!?! (still not expecting it, though!)
With all this talk of huge crowds in the four main parks, I never read about crowds at the water parks, which my family loves! Here’s to hoping Typhoon Lagoon and Blizzard Beach aren’t as crazy as the main parks!!
My family and I have visited Disney the week of Easter Break for the past 15 years and are doing it again this year!! Have a tight touring plan and research. Get up very early. Keep moving early in the morning!!! We almost have it down to a science and have only once been disappointed when we had our touring plan screwed up by the Safari unexpectedly closing first thing in the morning for a major issue. If your kids are old and comfortable enough totally take advantage of the single rider lines. My kids did Everest last year at Easter at least 10 times in a row with no waits (single rider line). My husband has complained about riding Space Mt first thing in the morning but we do it without a fastpass or a wait. It works if you really try! The water parks are hit or miss at this time of year. Get there at least half hour before opening and wait to get in. If you do this, you can snag some beach chairs for the day. Hit the major water slides first. For the past few years, the water parks have extended hours about an hour while we have been there. They usually don’t announce until later in the day when some have already headed out. We always have a GREAT time and it keeps us coming back for more. Good luck!
We just back from Disney World. We did all four parks in 4 days- Feb 1-4th. It seemed pretty crazy busy to me, to the point where I couldn’t even imagine going during spring break or Christmas.
We got fast passes for most of the popular rides, and I did extra morning magic (the paid event) for Toy Story Land and Fantasyland. This was expensive, but since our trip was so brief, I justified it with the reduced hotel and food costs, as I had originally planned and budgeted for a week long trip. We did have to wait 150 minutes for Avatar (well, *I* didn’t, but people in my group did- my 3 year old and I did other things during that time), and 80 min for Test Track, but everyone in my family that waited enthusiastically agreed these were worth the waits. Test Track was one and done, but if time had permitted, my daughter, husband, and nephew would have waited another 150 min for a 2nd crack at Avatar.
So, the waiting in lines wasn’t so bad. But for me, even with the minimal line waits (the longest I personally waited was about 45 min) the crowds just spoiled it for me. Walking around was difficult, and the crush of people was really intimidating. And the weather was pretty nice- high 60s and mostly dry. I can’t imagine dealing with this in 90+ temps and humidity.
And reading about all the ways that Disney is cutting costs while seeing these massive crowds- well, that was just maddening. Overall the trip went really well, and I’m glad we went. But I won’t be one of those people that has to go every year, let alone multiple times per year.
I love WDW, I really do!”………..But the overcrowding just ruins the whole experience. We have decided to skip 2019 and take a look at the situation after that……Really Sad!
I think one of the issues is also Disney talking out the walkthrough/playground attractions and arcades. Toon Town, Honey I Shrunk the Kids, and the various EPCOT pavilions served to redirect people away from rides when they needed a break. It gave kids space to run around and tire themselves out while still having fun. Same idea with arcades. Guests are spending money and hanging out in the A/C.
The only playground attraction left is The Boneyard in AK. Since the area there is “walled in” you don’t need too many Cast Members to “operate” the attraction.
At least in general, it seems like Disney is trying to put together more activities (movie night, cookie decorating, trivia, etc.) at the actual resorts to divert crowds.
Did you forget Tom SawyervIskand in MK, or has it gone away?
On both of our last 2 trips to WDW Tom Sawyer Island was closed. My daughter was so disappointed. It’s one of her favorite places.
Any rumors of free dining after Sept. 30, ???
I don’t want to go back just one decade, I want to go back to 1995-2005 WDW.
I’ll raise you an extra decade. Take it back to 1985 please.
You mean Before it Became Insane, jam packed, crowded !
1990-1993 was the best time. there is virtually no one in our family photos aside from our actual family.
Take me back to the early 90s! We were there in 1991 for our honeymoon. It was THE best time. Low crowds, excellent cast members, totally clean, and just great, great fun! Would love it to be like that again!
If we’re talking “ideal” time at Walt Disney World, mine would be around 1996. Original EPCOT Center is largely intact, Disney-MGM Studios has opened and expanded, and New Tomorrowland has debuted. Okay, so there’s also the Castle Cake…but still.
Actually around 2008 was ideal. I can recall being there the week before Christmas and not waiting in line for more than 10 minutes for any attraction. We would visit Universal Studios during that time and spend half the day at the park with no lines and for the first two hours wouldn’t even see another guest. That was just after the financial crisis.
We just left MK, everyone should note to never go there the day after the SuperBowl!! It was terrible!
Absolutely, couldn’t even move at MK the day after the Superbowl. I should have anticipated, but I didn’t see anything on any website saying how crazy that Monday after the Superbowl is. We had to bail out and go back to the Poly. Should have gone to EPCOT, oh well live and learn.
Okay, so what is your advice for beating the crowds? I’ve noticed in your blog that you tend to skip rides altogether if the lines are long, saying you’re happy to never ride a ride at that wait time. But that does not work for those of us coming once every few years (or once ever). Is there a way to beat the crowds when you can no longer pick the “right” date?
A couple ideas I’ve seen elsewhere or maybe even here, plan some rides during popular shows/parades especially in MK instead of stopping to watch the entertainment at the castle. Everyone else is doing the same thing, so surely some ride time are shorter then.
Also, take advantage of the fastpass system. Book early and get your FPs for the best rides early in the day, then after you use your 3rd one for the day, hop back in the system and find another one to book and just do that all day finding something available closest to current time. We booked 2 or 3 after 7pm when we were there Thanksgiving week. I even logged in as soon as we scanned in while we waited in line. Get what you can and have fun.
Our itineraries cover that: https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-park-itineraries/
Beyond that, arriving for rope drop and staying until park close is the best approach. You can get more done during the first 2 and last 2 hours of the day than the entire middle section, so if you have to take a midday nap break to arrive early and stay (or return) late, it’s worth it.
I would love to see a new itinerary that covers beyond Oct. 2019, or when you believe the parks will become “bonkers” (truth). We will be there in Dec., and are running between excited and terrified. Don’t ask why, no one quite knows the reason.
As of right now, too much of that would be guesswork and not sufficiently reliable.
I do have some guesses based upon what we’ve seen with Pandora and Toy Story Land, but I’m not confident enough in them to put them into “written recommendation” form.
I definitely agree with no longer relying on those crowd calendars. Our last trip was Oct 2017 and while low crowds were predicted, that was NOT the reality. It was a slap in the face compared to our first ever trip in late February 2014 which was blissful.
I’m currently -tentatively- planning a trip for spring break 2020 – the first week of April, and I’m a little terrified of what effect Star Wars may have on an already crowded time of year.
We were in Hollywood Studios about 5 months after toy story land opened. It was also Thanksgiving week. There were so many people during the day, it was hard to move around. Nighttime in TSL was a bit better and my daughter had an amazing time when she met Woody and Jessie together. I’m sure Star Wars will be similar. But, alas, we’re planning another trip near the same week you’re going. Late march or early April 2020. I’m planning a longer trip to go to each park twice and get different fast passes for each day. Getting the right FPs at the right time as well as stopping for shows and an afternoon nap really made our trip go smoothly. I’d say don’t not go because of Star Wars. Rembrace the new attractions and if you’re not a fan of the force, you’ll still have plenty of things to look forward to!
Feb 27 2014 was my first day in Disney World ever. I would definitely call that week blissful compared to what we experienced since then.