It’s the Year’s Busiest Week at Disney World
Thanksgiving is this Thursday, and the week around it will be the busiest of the year at Walt Disney World (so far). This crowd report will share recent wait time data, photos from over the weekend, and thoughts on what’s likely to happen next with numbers at Walt Disney World this holiday season.
This week being insanely busy should be unsurprising. Every year, Michiganders make the pilgrimage to Florida the week of Turkey Day to drown their sorrows in the magic before, during, and after another disappointing Detroit Lions performance. With the Lions currently sitting at 0-9 (sorry, forgot that one impressive tie!) and likely to start *checks notes* Tim Boyle at QB, it’s unquestionably going to be another rough day. But hey, at least the Bears suck, too.
Now, you might argue that awful outings by the Detroit Lions don’t cause heavy Thanksgiving crowds at Walt Disney World. However, a straightforward statistical analysis supports my hypothesis. Every year I can remember, the Lions have played like turkeys on Thanksgiving. Also every year, Thanksgiving has been crowded at Walt Disney World. It’s hard to believe that’s just a coincidence.
With that said, we have been slightly surprised by just how high crowds have been at Walt Disney World over the past few days. Since mid-August, we’ve been discussing the impact of Florida’s since-subsided delta surge and Walt Disney World’s reinstated indoor mask rule on cancellations. As we pointed out then, those cancellations didn’t impact just the early fall–they stretched through the end of 2021, including the holiday season.
Although our 2021-2022 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars caution that the weeks of Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve would still be incredibly busy, we expected that plus hotel unavailability, lack of international travel, etc. would take some of the edge off attendance. Judging by the lack of Park Pass availability, wait times, and congestion in the parks, that clearly is not going to be the case.
Before we get ahead of ourselves with a forward-looking forecast, let’s dig into wait times and see to what’s up with current crowds at Walt Disney World…
Let’s start with a high level look at weekly wait time averages across the entirety of Walt Disney World. (All graphs and wait time stats courtesy of Thrill-Data.com.)
This actually doesn’t reflect the high crowds we’re referencing–at least, not in full. That’s largely because recent weeks have had low days mixed in with the high ones. As for Thanksgiving crowds, there’s only been a couple days of those thus far.
If you break it down by day, the graph becomes more difficult to read, but you can also see what happened yesterday–the highest line at the very far right side.
November 21, 2021 had an average daily wait time across attractions in all parks at Walt Disney World of 50 minutes. This makes it the busiest day of the year so far, surpassing July 27 and 28 by one minute each.
Breaking this down by park, where we’ll start with Magic Kingdom.
We actually can’t see this playing out there, where the average wait yesterday was a decidedly average 34 minutes. However, it was also a Disney Very Merriest After Hours night, which meant Magic Kingdom closed a couple of hours early as compared to most other dates this week.
As we’ve mentioned several times–including in our Best & Worst Days at Each Park in Walt Disney World, the day during party nights is always less crowded. Let’s see how much wait times spike today for Magic Kingdom.
Yesterday’s longest lines in Magic Kingdom were Jungle Cruise, Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, and Pirates of the Caribbean–all of which averaged over an hour. (Jungle Cruise’s 95 minute average should reinforce why it’s #1 in our Magic Kingdom Genie+ Priorities & Lightning Lane Ride Ranks.)
Continuing to Epcot, where crowd levels have spiked after settling into lower levels for much of the last few months. Yesterday averaged a 33 minute wait at Epcot, which may not seem bad, but it’s the highest number since July 28. As always, “feels like” crowds at Epcot–especially in World Showcase–are always worse on weekends.
Attractions with the longest wait times were Frozen Ever After and Test Track, at 94 and 61 minutes, respectively. Soarin’ Around the World averaged a 49 minute wait time–much higher than it has been in recent months. Nothing else was above 30 minutes, which is what brought the overall average down so much. (Note that this does not include Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure due to its virtual queue.)
Animal Kingdom had its busiest day of the year yesterday, and by a wide margin. The average wait time was 67 minutes (!!!), which is significantly higher than even the worst date in July (60 minutes).
Avatar Flight of Passage averaged 150 minutes and Na’vi River Journey averaged 85 minutes. Kilimanjaro Safaris averaged 74 minutes, Expedition Everest averaged 56 minutes, and Dinosaur averaged 55 minutes. Yikes.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Another red line eclipsing all of days at the far right.
DHS continues to be the busiest park at Walt Disney World, with yesterday hitting an average wait time of 67 minutes (!!!!!). That eclipses Saturday (#2 of the year), which hit 59 minutes, and Friday, which hit 53 minutes. This falls into “big yikes” territory on our highly scientific scale.
While both parks averaged a 67 minute wait time through the day on November 22, this is subjectively worse at Disney’s Hollywood Studios because the park has more rides. By contrast, Animal Kingdom has more to do without waiting in lines.
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance averaged a 154 minute wait time, Slinky Dog Dash averaged a 105 minute wait, Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster averaged 83 minutes, Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway averaged 81 minutes, Millennium Falcon Smugglers Run averaged 78 minutes, Toy Story Mania averaged 73 minutes, and Twilight Zone Tower of Terror averaged 65 minutes. That’s right–all headliners were over an hour. Even Alien Swirling Saucers was at 47 minutes. Alien Swirling Saucers!!!
Disney’s Hollywood Studios is where we spent the bulk of our weekend at Walt Disney World, and the crowds were self-evident. It wasn’t a matter of waits being inflated or congestion somehow being lower. What you see is what you get at DHS. It was bad. Very bad.
I haven’t seen crowds this heavy since early last year. Disney’s Hollywood Studios felt like one of the days shortly after the opening of Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance, with overflow queues everywhere, long waits for Mobile Order, packed shows, and a much fuller parking lot than we’ve seen at any point since early March 2020.
Back then, we wrote Disney’s Hollywood Studios: WDW’s Best Rides & Most Frustrating Park, which focused on how the attraction roster was too top heavy, with an insufficient supporting lineup to help absorb crowds. Now, that post seems so quaint. Never would’ve imagined even more could be cut from the supporting lineup!
In short, Disney’s Hollywood Studios needs all stage shows back ASAP and more temporary entertainment to help ease congestion. DHS used to do exactly that for the Christmas season–anyone remember the Comedy Warehouse Holiday Special?!
Looking forward, you can expect crowd levels throughout this entire week on par with Sunday. Magic Kingdom will be worse, because everyone who avoided it on Sunday due to the party will be trying to get their fix during the week. Epcot will also likely be worse, for lack of better Park Pass options (just like in the spring and early summer).
Speaking of Disney Park Pass availability, there’s not much of it. Availability has only worsened since we reported on it in last week’s Walt Disney World Warns of High Holiday Crowds. There’s now zero Disney Park Pass availability for this entire week. It’s possible some dates will be reallocated from APs (now that those sales have been paused) and refilled, but that will only worsen crowds if it happens.
Peak season crowds in the coming week due to Thanksgiving is hardly a bold or new prediction. It would be more surprising if this wasn’t the busiest week of the year so far. And that’s true regardless of whether the Detroit Lions end up winning on Thursday.
Again, nothing new there–all of this is covered in our November 2021 Crowd Calendar.
Aside from Michiganders (and other Midwesterners, for that matter), there’s the Reopening of International Travel’s Potential Impact on Walt Disney World Crowds. Orlando International Airport is already reporting high volume from abroad, suggesting those visitors are already arriving in full force.
In addition to that, the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority is forecasting a near-record 1.63 million passengers passing through MCO during the Thanksgiving holiday travel period. This is down only slightly from 2019.
While “lower” might seem good, keep in mind that Walt Disney World is still not operating at 100%. Many stage shows are still dark, some nighttime spectaculars & parades are still cut, meet & greets are mostly absent, atmospheric entertainment isn’t back, hours remain reduced, and not every venue in the parks & resorts (dining, in particular) is fully efficient due to staffing shortages.
All of this might seem minor, but the totality of it means that Walt Disney World isn’t equipped to handle nearly the level of crowds as it was for Thanksgiving 2019. As a result, “down only slightly” is effectively an increase in feels like crowds, even if not raw attendance numbers or travel volume.
Even when Walt Disney World is busy, it’s still possible to have a satisfying and productive day in the park. Be sure to use our Walt Disney World Itineraries for efficient step-by-step strategy, with options now with and without Genie+ and Lightning Lanes.
Speaking of which, we’d strongly recommend Genie+ for Disney’s Hollywood Studios and Magic Kingdom. We used it over the weekend at DHS, and while we were able to make fewer selections per day with it than we were in October or early November, we still saved over 4 hours in line. Your mileage may vary, but that’s worth the $16 per person per day to us.
If you’re staying on-site, be sure to take advantage of Early Entry and Extended Evening Hours (if eligible). As “companion” advice to that for the coming week: embrace the midday break. Rather than going back to your resort, we’d highly recommend doing lunch outside the park at one of the nearby resorts. During your Magic Kingdom day, take a bucolic boat ride and enjoy a fantastic feast for the holidays, which is also a great value for families.
Your goal should be to stay until closing, which requires outlasting the crowds. That can be difficult to accomplish if you spend the entire day in any of the parks, so don’t feel bad about taking a break. Sometimes a respite from the crowds and chaos is necessary to power through the full day.
Ultimately, it’s not just this coming week that’s going to be incredibly crowded. The next month-plus will be busy at Walt Disney World, with only a few potential reprieves from the crowds. Thanksgiving week may not end up having the highest attendance of the year, but if so, that’ll only be because the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve surpasses it.
In short, pack your patience and arm yourself with savvy strategy if you’re visiting Walt Disney World this week or beyond. It is going to be very busy with “feels like” crowds and wait times among the highest we’ve ever seen. We’ll be in the parks throughout the week and should have some reports and advice that will help you make the most of Christmas season at Walt Disney World.
Planning a Walt Disney World trip? Learn about hotels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews page. For where to eat, read our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To save money on tickets or determine which type to buy, read our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets post. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips post takes a unique look at clever items to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will help. For comprehensive advice, the best place to start is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for everything you need to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for Thanksgiving and Christmas season? Do you agree or disagree that this is caused by the dreadful Detroit Lions’ performance on Turkey Day? Thoughts on our prediction that this week will be the busiest week of the year (so far) at Walt Disney World? If you’ve visited in prior months during the last year, how did crowds compare between then and now? What did you think of the wait times? Any parks or times of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with anything in our report? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
Thanks for your response Tom. Appreciate it. Had a feeling it would still be pretty busy. Have to see what happens when we go.
Curious to know if the weekend right after Thanksgiving will be just as packed as you mentioned for Animal Kingdom or Hollywood Studios? Planning on going but extremely worried about the crowds. This is our first attempt at going to a theme park during the holiday week.Yikes
There’s usually a drop-off on the Sunday after Thanksgiving as people start heading home. Usually being the operative word. Things still aren’t quite back to normal in terms of crowd dynamics, but we’d still expect that to occur.
Visited DHS 11/21 and it was crazy busy. They opened before 8:30 for early entry. We arrived at 8:15 and already open so went right in to Rise of Resistance. Ended up getting Genie Plus after the fact because of long waits for every ride. I would say bite the bullet and purchase it so you can start getting passes at 7 am. We are staying at Dolphin so took a 2 hr. midday break. We ended up only getting 3 good Genie passes: Tower, Rock and Roller coaster and Star Tours. But, we still got on every ride by end of the night. Got in line for Slinky Dog 10 min. before closing and only waited 25 min. when ride attendant said it would be 70 min. Overall awesome day. Ate lunch at PizzaRizzo. A perfect location. Lots of tables upstairs away from crowds.
On these very crowded days, if you enter a park with your reservation, leave and come back to your original park, do you have a better chance of re-entering the park than people who are park hopping?
The only day that has had any Park Hopping (after 2 pm) restrictions was on the 50th Anniversary in Magic Kingdom, and even that was brief.
I wouldn’t expect to encounter any problems during the holiday season–but yes, those with ‘original’ park reservations do have priority over hoppers in a phased closure scenario.
Hey Tom,
We are here at MK today. Rope dropped 7D and waited because there was a delayed start (assume rain issue). We followed your G+ advice and scored some duplicate LL but to your point here – it’s painfully busy and I think we may have been better off following your standard one day MK plan. We spent more time caring about G+ and stuck to our phone vs enjoying the rides.
That being said, we’re going to see if we can do a better job with it at HS tomorrow (then transitioning to MK for the holiday party). Crossing fingers!
Good luck!
@Laura…what’s funny is I was watching the game with my brother in law. We were both at the Ravens – Bengals game in 2018 when Andy Dalton threw a 50ish yard touchdown pass on 4th and 12 at the end of the game to knock the Ravens out of the playoffs. As soon as Dalton went in we both thought we were in for a similar fate, and it almost happened.
We’re not headed there until Jan 18-22, but do you think with international travel being open again, it will be pretty packed? My travel agent was saying that lots of resorts were booked up until mid February so that makes me nervous for crowd levels during our trip. We’ll have a 5 year old with us (her first trip!) so we were trying to go in a more “off season” time (though I know the off season concept is disappearing) but now I’m wondering if it’s gonna be packed then too.
on behalf of bears fans everywhere, i can confidently assure you the bears will do everything possible to give the game away on thursday. yesterday when the bears went up with 1:41 left, we cheered, then i told my husband, “too much time left, they’ll blow it”. aaaaaand, they did. (and per your comment below, don’t give up on Fields. all bears fans know the coaching behind him has been an utter mess).
Any chance they pull back on the park attendance caps the week of Xmas, etc given the issues seen so far this week and the lack of ways to disperse crowds? I am assuming the answer is a great big, resounding “HA!” but figured I would ask
Good reminder that the crowds impact everything – airport efficiency, food, Lyft rides. We will be there this weekend, so we plan on “packing our patience.” It helps to have your itineraries and kids who like attractions like Animation Experience at AK and Carousel of Progress/Tiki Room etc to round out the rides. Also, the weather forecast is for a sunny 72 degrees!
I just returned on Saturday from a one week trip in Disney and I thought it was really crowded. I can’t imagine being there this week. We didn’t stay on property and therefore weren’t able to score an ILL for FoP or Rise of the Resistance. Ended up waiting over 2 hours for FoP and 2 1/2 for Rise of the Resistance. The standby time for RotR said 90 minutes when we jumped in line, but the ride must have broke down. It’s the only explanation. Also, we weren’t able to make a Genie+ Lightning Lane for Slinky Dog Dash. Tried at 7am when I was eligible to buy Genie+ and didn’t see any times and checked many times throughout the day.
I just don’t get these park hours given the crowds. DHS is 9-9, which is the same hours it had last Christmas when capacity was around 35%. If they can’t bring back shows and entertainment quicker, they should at least spread the crowds with longer hours.
Tom-
“anyone remember the Comedy Warehouse Holiday Special?!”
YES!! Great show, had the opportunity to enjoy multiple times – if you were selected for a “starring” role it was a special memory!
Logistically, that would be an easy show to bring back and DHS REALLY needs something like it.
Does that troupe still perform anywhere?
Hello. Thanks for the info! So are you saying the week following thanksgiving (next week) will have high levels instead of the moderate you anticipated? If so, are you familiar with Universal and would you expect the same there? (I ask this at the risk of outing myself as a traitor to fellow DisneyGeeks ) We’re taking my mom, since she has already been to Disney with us. We will be there Saturday morning after Tday and depart Thursday morning–visiting parks sat-wed. I had already anticipated Saturday being busy. Anyway any insight you could provide would be appreciated, as I am not familiar with any universal forums/blogs. Thanks and enjoy the holiday!
Going to Epcot next Monday. Do you think we need to purchase Genie+.
Hey Tom, was just wondering if you knew why a few days ago there were suddenly at least 30 available reservations at Le Cellier on December 2nd? Isn’t that strange or have I just not noticed that stuff happening for other places or times?
So we are heading into Disney tomorrow. We have been at universal these past few days. So would you say it’s just best to Ala’ cart flight of passage and then just roll the dice on animal kingdom instead of genie plus? We planned on MK and Ak genie plus and we were gonna roll with he dice with with HS and Epcot. That was the plan.
That’s a tough call. This week, it arguably makes sense to buy Genie+ at DAK–just look at those average waits for the headliners. I’d probably do that, and try to rope drop Flight of Passage, or do it towards the end of the night.
I could see doing ILL for FoP and rolling the dice on the rest, though. Probably depends upon what matters more to you and how many Genie+ rides are high priorities.
Heading to WDW 12/4-12/11 how will the crowds be then?
Expect the first two weeks of December to be busy, but not this busy.
Do you expect the week of December 5th to be as crazy as this week?? I’ll be at Disney December 5th through 9th.
“But hey, at least the Bears suck, too” I’m a Ravens fan and could not believe the Bears found a way to lose that game yesterday. It was remarkable.
I just noticed that the Standby sign for 7DMT has rabbits on it…is including an animal known for it’s quickness a subtle way of throwing salt on the wound?
Good luck navigating the chaos.
I’m not surprised. I drafted Justin Fields in my franchise two-QB league (yes, I’m a dork about things other than Disney) and he’s been a complete disaster. Finally dropped him after a truly impressive -8 point performance.