Why a 5th Theme Park Will NOT Be Built at Disney World in the Next Decade
Fans are hopeful that Walt Disney World will build a 5th theme park given the billions of dollars the company plans on investing on expansion in Florida. This makes the pessimistic prediction that a fifth gate won’t come to WDW any time soon…and shouldn’t! Here’s why it won’t happen, what we’ll get instead at Magic Kingdom and beyond, and why that’s the better outcome for fans and the company.
This is a topic that has been discussed to death by Walt Disney World fans for a while. As soon as Animal Kingdom opened, people began looking to the future again at what would come next. To some degree, this was understandable. California Adventure and Tokyo DisneySea both opened a few years later, with new parks in Paris, Hong Kong, and Shanghai after that. All offered amazing attractions and lands that Walt Disney World fans would love to see in Florida.
More recently, there’s been a lot in the last year-plus that’s given fans optimism that Walt Disney World will build a 5th (and even 6th!) theme park in coming years. This has really kicked into high gear in the last couple of months, after the company hosted Wall Street analysts and investors at Walt Disney World for an investor summit. That’s where they first revealed a plan to double investment to $60 billion in Disney Parks over the next decade.
That wasn’t the first time in the last year or so that Walt Disney World fans had heard teases of a bright future for the Florida parks. At last year’s D23 Expo, Parks Chairman Josh D’Amaro teased expansion plans for Animal Kingdom and ‘Beyond Big Thunder’ at Magic Kingdom. Those were once again reiterated and refined at Destination D23 this fall.
D’Amaro and Disney CEO Bob Iger have hyped investment in the parks beyond that. During the most recent earnings call a few weeks ago, Iger identified four “building opportunities” for the Walt Disney Company that will be central to future success, one of which is “turbocharging” growth in Parks & Resorts.
While other fans are skeptical, we believe both Iger and D’Amaro are sincere. We do think there are some necessary prerequisites that the company must address before switching gears and moving into ‘building mode’ but we’ll give the benefit of the doubt and assume that’ll happen by late 2024 or 2025. We will also assume that the $60 billion amount is accurate for all of Parks & Resorts, and that of that, the company has $17 billion investment plans for Walt Disney World.
Some of these might be optimistic assumptions, but they’re ones we’re willing to make. And even in light of these charitable numbers that might be reduced later, we still do NOT expect a 5th gate at Walt Disney World. Here are all of the reasons why…
First, because both Bob Iger and Josh D’Amaro have specifically said they want to expand the existing parks. During the many interviews the two have given this year that discussed plans for the future and bullishness on parks, they talked about capacity-expanding additions.
We discussed all of this in great length in Bob Iger Wants Big Expansions at Walt Disney World & Disneyland and again in Reimaginings Inside the Park and ‘Beyond the Berm’ Expansion at Magic Kingdom. There are no shortage of quotes from Iger and D’Amaro about reimaginings and new lands at the existing Walt Disney World parks. There are zero about fifth gates.
Iger and D’Amaro are careful and deliberate when speaking publicly, choosing their words carefully. If there were plans for new theme parks, they’d say as much. Instead, they repeatedly have invoked Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, Toy Story Land, and Pandora – World of Avatar as the blueprints for how Disney plans to expand its parks and “invest in increasing capacity” and “opportunity within these existing footprints to optimize.” Those words are pretty clear.
If that’s not enough for you, there are the concepts that have already been announced or teased. Walt Disney World has only confirmed one major expansion project, the Tropical Americas at Animal Kingdom. Beyond that, they’ve repeatedly suggested there are plans for Beyond Big Thunder in Magic Kingdom. They’ve also talked about World of Frozen and Wakanda lands coming to Disneyland and Walt Disney World–but not in new parks.
There’s really no need to speculate. D’Amaro and Iger have repeatedly and consistently shared the plan, and it is not for a fifth gate!
Somehow, some Walt Disney World fans still find this unpersuasive, thinking maybe that D’Amaro and Iger are playing their cards close to the vest. That is quite the charitable interpretation, especially of two dudes who have developed a habit of publicly blue sky daydreaming in the last year. So they have no problem sharing unconfirmed concept explorations for the existing parks, but are keeping a 5th gate a closely guarded secret? That’s a stretch.
More likely, fans are looking at that headline $60 billion or $17 billion number and doing some dreaming of their own. To be sure, those are colossal sums of money. Taking just the $17 billion, which is conceivably enough for 5th, 6th, and 7th gates. That’s theoretically enough for roughly three new Shanghai Disneylands (~$5.5 billion upon opening in 2016).
However, there’s zero chance of a 5th gate at Walt Disney World costing that little unless it were done in the spirit of the OG Walt Disney Studios Park in France and, trust me, no one actually wants that mess. For one thing, construction isn’t as cheap in the United States as it is in China (that was also almost a decade ago). Labor and material costs have skyrocketed and Disney doesn’t have a great track record of keeping costs in check. A new Disney theme park in Florida would easily cost $8 billion unless it were an absolute barebones, half-day park.
On top of that, this is all of the CapEx at Walt Disney World over the course of a decade. Even Disney could build a new park for $6-7 billion (they can’t–unless you want a bad park), that be a big chunk of that total, and would necessitate CapEx reductions in the existing 4 parks as compared to the last decade.
At first blush, $17 billion seems like a ton of money, but it’s actually only slightly above the last decade at Walt Disney World when adjusted for inflation (it may not be above it at all when looking exclusively at construction costs). To be sure, there were a ton of awesome additions over the last decade–and it’d be great to get another 10 years of that–but zero new parks.
Building a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World would mean that the Tropical Americas and Beyond Big Thunder projects, which they’ve already said are happening, wouldn’t be able to happen. Again, there’s every reason to believe the plan is expansion to the existing parks rather than development of a new one.
Still, many Walt Disney World fans think a 5th gate must happen for one simple reason: as an “answer” to Universal’s Epic Universe, the third theme park being built in Central Florida by Comcast. Epic Universe is full steam ahead, and slated to open by Summer 2025. Many fans believe Walt Disney World needs to have a response to Epic Universe, and the only thing that can really compete with a new theme park is a new theme park.
The reality is that absolutely will not happen. Even if Disney wanted to build a new theme park and announced one today, there is a 0.000% chance the company could have it open by Summer 2025. Heck, even if Walt Disney World started work on Tropical Americas at Animal Kingdom tomorrow (they won’t) that land probably wouldn’t be done by Summer 2025.
In all likelihood, Tropical Americas is the next major project on the horizon (outside of ride reimaginings) and it’ll start in late 2024 and be done in 2026. It appears increasingly likely that Walt Disney World is going to “sit out” 2025 and not try to compete with Epic Universe. (I remain of the belief that a reimagined Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster will be the tentpole addition of 2025. That plus maybe a couple of redone things in EPCOT. Enough to be marketable, but not to actually compete with Universal.)
Disney has probably concluded that the only way to “win” is to not play the game. No new ride or land is going to meaningfully compete with a brand-new theme park. Sitting out this round of the theme park wars, conceding the spotlight for a year, and claiming “a rising tide lifts all boats” (their official answer to the Wizarding World of Harry Potter when it first opened) might be the best hand that Disney can play. No Disney fan wants to hear this, but might be the smarter move than trying to steal Epic Universe’s thunder.
Assuming, for the sake of argument, that Walt Disney World had built a 5th gate and it also opened in 2025. At least when it comes to theme park fans or people wanting to do the hot new thing, Epic Universe and that fictional Disney 5th gate aren’t going to compete with one another–they’d both cannibalize attendance from the existing parks.
That’s a natural segue into a core point that Walt Disney World will only ever build another theme park if it won’t pull away from its existing gates. You may also hate to hear this, but Walt Disney World is not going to build another park to reduce crowds or attendance in its current parks. There’s no scenario where they’re going to spend billions of dollars to tread water–that doesn’t make any sense.
Walt Disney World will only build another park if it can increase per guest spending via vacation duration and add at least ~8 million new visits to Walt Disney World’s cumulative total in its first full year. That would be a difficult feat. The average American’s vacation is between 4 and 6 days long, and that average has been on the decline for the last couple of decades with Americans leaving a record number of vacation days on the table (there’s article after article about the shrinking American vacation).
Anecdotally, we’ve heard from many travel agent friends this year that the most common “answer” from clients to rising costs at Walt Disney World is decreasing length of stay. Rather than doing a full week or 6 days, they’re doing 4-5 and avoiding weekends. There’s actually indirect data to support this–look no further than the slowdown on Saturdays and Sundays.
With the duration of the average American vacation on the decline, adding more gates is a tough sell. After factoring in travel days, many Americans already don’t have enough time to experience all four parks plus Disney Springs or water parks plus whatever Universal’s parks might siphon away.
This is a problem because it necessarily means that a new theme park at Walt Disney World would cannibalize attendance from the existing gates, at least among a good segment of guests. If the majority of visitors to Walt Disney World don’t have another park day to add, building a fifth gate is a nonstarter. It’s easier to get more people to come to the current parks than to take the current demographic and have them add another day.
As always, there are outliers–and those of you reading this who measure your annual time at Walt Disney World in weeks are exactly that. But if you’re reading this, you already do not match the median guest profile for Walt Disney World, so let me stop you right there. You are very much above average. It’s important that we don’t confuse our own vacation time or preferences for the norm.
Then there are the logistical impediments or reasons why building a new theme park would be less desirable than expanding existing gates. One of these is staffing.
Staffing shortages have been a hot topic for the last couple of years, and although they’re largely resolved in the parks, it’s still not perfect. It’s still a tight labor market, with nearly two job openings for every unemployed person. The root causes of this are beyond the scope of this post, but the bottom line is that it’s unlikely to change in the Central Florida hospitality industry.
Whether the local labor market (not to mention the housing market, which is already pricing hospitality industry workers out–that’s the reason why Disney is helping to build affordable housing) can sustain not just one, but two more parks, is an open question. It’s not just these parks, either. There’s the $1.5 billion Evermore Orlando Resort, Area15, and dozens of other attractions and hotels that are under construction. All of these places need people to work at them.
Of course, Walt Disney World has the College Program and various other means of importing temporary workers from out of state–and that could certainly help provide the workforce necessary for a fifth gate–but thus far that has not been the case for their 4 gates in the last couple of years.
If Disney is going to allocate existing or additional employees to new developments, they’d probably prioritize timeshares and hotels over a theme park. There’s better ROI and less risk, and those are not nearly as resource-intensive. Personally, I think Disney is likely reticent to build new hotels in the near-term, but timeshares are full steam ahead.
When it comes to growing theme park attendance, the easier and more cost-effective solution is the one we’ve been seeing over the last several years: expanding the existing parks. Walt Disney World has already built out the capacity of its existing gates with attractions like Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, the Guardians of the Galaxy coaster, TRON Lightcycle Power Run, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
This approach of expanding the footprint of existing parks or replacing underutilized attractions is advantageous from Disney’s perspective because it keeps infrastructure costs lower. It also doesn’t require gambling big on a new, untried concept and having to throw more money at that in the future to boost its popularity.
With a new park comes new toll plazas, ticket booths, turnstiles, backstage facilities, roads, transportation hubs, and other infrastructure that already exists in support of the existing theme parks. These infrastructure expenses are not insignificant, and it’s difficult to justify their expenditures when the existing parks can be built-out without incurring all of these same costs.
Then there are the operating costs, which would also be higher with a new gate versus an existing gate with added capacity. New theme parks require more labor (see above) for staffing said toll plazas, ticket booths, turnstiles, transportation, and so forth. Simply put, expanding the existing parks is the conservative, cost-effective, and low-risk approach. It costs less for the company, and that means less expense to be passed on to consumers.
This brings us to the point that Walt Disney World should not build a fifth gate. Here, we’re switching gears from what will likely happen to what should happen. Frankly, Walt Disney World has no business thinking about another brand-new theme park anytime soon. I know this is going to get me some hate mail, but hear me out.
Fans love the idea of a 5th theme park because it’s a blank slate, capable of holding a long wish list of rides and lands. Instead of getting 1-2 rides here or there, we get a half-dozen new lands. I get it. A brand new theme park is sexy and exciting, and it’s fun to daydream about Florida DisneySea or whatever might be in your perfect park.
Don’t get me wrong–I would love to relive the feeling of setting foot in a brand new park that’s totally unfamiliar. There’s nothing like that–expansions absolutely do not compare! But I’m also a realist. It’s fun to dream, but the practical reality of a new theme park in the late 2020s or early 2030s would not be perfect or meet what you’re imagining; at best, it would open incomplete.
If this fictional fifth gate at Walt Disney World were on par with Walt Disney Studios Park (Paris), Disney’s California Adventure, or Hong Kong Disneyland when any of those opened, the experience would be utterly underwhelming. Building Tokyo DisneySea or Shanghai Disneyland…as they exist today…in Florida, USA…in the year 2030 would cost at least $10 billion once all is said and done. Maybe more.
As exciting as that would be–and it’d be very exciting!–it’s difficult to advocate for that when Animal Kingdom is still a half-day park for most guests and in need of 2-3 more rides. When Disney’s Hollywood Studios needs more all-ages attractions so that its headliners don’t average 60+ minute waits. When EPCOT, even post-overhaul, needs another new World Showcase pavilion and reimaginings to a few rides at the front of the park.
And those are just the things that really should be done at the existing parks. That list did not include Beyond Big Thunder at Magic Kingdom. Not because I think it’s a bad idea, but because Magic Kingdom “needs” the least help. (It’s going to happen, regardless.) There are a ton of discretionary projects that could happen at the existing gates to really improve them, and Beyond Big Thunder is one of those.
Outside of the Dinoland plot, there’s a ton of unused or underutilized space in Animal Kingdom. That park already has great bones–now how about a couple of all-new (not replacement) lands–that turns it into a 1.5 day park? There’s endless potential at EPCOT. Backstage facilities could be relocated at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, allowing for the smallest park to become larger (and have an easier-to-navigate) layout. Imagineering is plenty capable of dreaming up tens of billions of dollars of fantastic ideas for the existing 4 parks at Walt Disney World.
If you’re not persuaded that fixing or building out the existing parks is the right course of action, I get it. The shiny new object (5th gate) is always going to be more exciting. But how about with this added to the mix: the infrastructure costs alone of building a new theme park would eat away at least $2 billion of that $17 billion. So unless you are a road and drainage enthusiast, those are sunk costs that would not enhance your vacation.
Stated differently, let’s say that if the company simply chooses to expand existing parks, we might get around $13 billion worth of new stuff, whereas we’d get $11 billion in total if there’s a new gate thrown into the mix. (I’ve already skimmed $4 billion from the top under the assumption that it’ll go to DVC/hotels or other non-attractions projects, regardless.)
For me, the answer is easy: I’ll take a maximization of the investment, and have that money allocated towards expanding the existing parks and reimagining rides that are currently underutilized or outdated. I know that’s not the exciting choice and might be an unpopular opinion. But the alternative is the current 4 gates stagnating for at least a full decade–and that’s assuming a new gate would be properly built-out in the first place, and wouldn’t require another decade to fix or expand.
As a Disney fan, I’ve lived through decades of stagnation and I don’t really want a repeat of that. From my perspective, the last decade was far, far better. Sure, I think everything took too long and a decent amount of money was poorly allocated at EPCOT. But at least part of that can be blamed on the pandemic, and hopefully that won’t happen again. If leadership coalesces around a clear vision for Walt Disney World’s 10-year plan, the fruits of that in the existing four parks could be fantastic.
The current parks are great, but they have a lot of untapped potential and room for improvement. I’d rather see billions of dollars invested into the current 4 parks than for them to be neglected for 10+ years. The good news, at least from my perspective, is that Walt Disney World fans don’t get a vote on this. My opinion and your opinion do not matter in the least–this is the route that Disney has already indicated it’s going to go.
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Your Thoughts
Do you think a fifth gate is on the horizon at Walt Disney World? Would you like to see $10 billion of that $17 billion spent on a brand-new theme park, or would you prefer it spent on building out the existing 4 parks? Do you agree or disagree with our reasons as to why one is unlikely–or desirable–in the foreseeable future? Any other thoughts or commentary to add? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I for one would LOVE a fifth gate. Not only are there plenty of themes to build it around it would really cement people on vacation coming to Disney and NOT venturing out before heading home.
There are of course two main problems. ONE, the biggest, the current parks need more rides, shows and entertainment. PERIOD!
TWO, Disney, currently, IMO, doesn’t have the creative talent or leadership to pull it off. They would completely screw it up, so we’re all better off with them making smaller mistakes than a gargantuan one.
One side bar (word usage in honor of Tom’s past life), and a particular personal pet peeve of mine is when people under value AK. Unquestionably it is short on rides BUT it has three great time consuming shows, a fun drawing class that few attend, a wonderful “dirt” pit that young kids can run around in while parents relax AND it is one of the FINEST ZOO’s in the world!
I wish there was a “reply to a reply” button so this is the only way I figure I can reply to the replies to my previous post.
To Tom Bricker: I should not have implied that YOU of all people were not aware. But most others are not. And try as I might, work keeps me from being able to review all of your blogs (which I DO enjoy). I was pointing out Disneys debt as a separate issue to their now overt wokeness. Just another example of terrible decisions by Iger. So maybe I should have been a bit more specific. But there is a correlation to their wokeness not at all helping get them out of debt-I mean didn’t they make their last 15 movies, (which truth be told have lost a combined 2 BILLION dollars when you properly factor in marketing costs and box-office splits,) with the hope that they would be PROFITABLE? Yet it was the overt messaging that kept people away from every one of them except “Guardians of the Galaxie Volume 3” which has been the ONLY film of the last 15 which broke even. That’s why many media sources sources like Forbes Magazine have pointed out that it seemed like Disney was more concerned with its “messaging” than profits, hence the HUGE stockholder lawsuit which is alleging the same thing.
To Ross: Disney may have been COVERTLY woke, but at least its movies and parks did not reflect it OVERTLY as they do now. Because its wokeness is now seen in EVERYTHING they do (except the aforementioned Guardians 3, led by James Gunn which is yet ANOTHER creative that Disney lost). I mean c’mon- At the parks they removed “Ladies & Gentlemen, Boys & Girls” because some how this statement is suddenly offensive? And they tore up “Splash Mountain” because some TINY minority found racism in it? Have you even seen “Song of the South”? You know, the very movie where a BLACK MAN won an academy award for his portrayal of Uncle Remus. And they replace it with a ride with a mine where SLAVES ACTUALLY DIED?? (not to mention the stupidity of the FACT that there are NO MOUNTAINS in New Orleans or the entire state of Louisianna !!) On top of all the wokeness in their last 15 movies-so “Yes!” the current boycott of Disney is very much a REAL thing that reflects a reaction to Disney’s obvious war with traditional FAMILY values. You know? “Families”? The very demographic that made the Disney company what it became?
To Aaron: Please understand that to make a profit you have to exceed the costs of investment into said product over the entire history of said investment with ACTUAL INCOME. Since 2015 when “Disney Life” was started in the UK and “Disney +” in 2020 every where else, the platform has LOST better than 15 BILLION $$ !! I disagree with your assessment because of two reasons. First, there have been a series of failed promises by Disney about when its streaming service would finally “be profitable”. Second, “profitability” only start when 15 Billion, or more, has ACTUALLY BEEN MADE in REAL INCOME dollars, not just in ONE quarter where its costs are finally exceeded by income. Thats a HUGE nut to crack buddy. And, because of the fact that Disney + has never gotten to its desired subscription goals, and because subscriptions continue to fall for MANY various reasons, (the latest being Musk telling people to unsubscribe, the continued conservative boycott, the familial boycott, etc.etc…) I cannot at all see a path to profitability by September 30th of next year. My personal prediction is that Iger will be gone, Peltz will be in charge of a conservative turn around or Disney itself might be sold to a company that has the capitol to “right the ship”. Of course that would be mean a complete departure from the wokeness that continues to cause the brokeness…
LGBTQ+ people and people from diverse races and backgrounds have money too 🙂
You seem super angry. I’m sorry that’s how you feel about diverse perspectives and people.
I agree! I have had amazing interactions with people “not like me” (that is, not old white American heterosexual female) at Disney. Gays and lesbians are super fun (I’ve chatted with such guests while standing in line or taking photos, and there is a fabulous gay concierge at Boardwalk Inn.) I love to talk with people from other countries. Everyone is so happy to be there and we share each other’s magic and energy. Little kids are tremendous – in my daily life I don’t get to see any of this age group much.
Even if everything was going great and the Walt Disney Company was as beloved (?) as COMCAST, a fifth park would be a bad idea for all the reasons listed above. When they decide they need to “answer” Epic Universe, they can just build ONE NEW LAND at Magic Kingdom and probably get the same attendance boost. Better to invest in updating/replacing outdated rides and infrastructure.
I agree with your overall sentiment. On a somewhat related thought in relation to competing with Universal, I think Disney should focus on what it already does so much better…culinary- there’s no comparison between the two. Disney far exceeds Universal at every level of food service. And horticulture / the general asthetics of the parks and resorts. I love great thrill rides, etc., but what really keeps me coming back is the feeling I get from just “being there”.
I agree with everything written here. I’ve mentioned this before but I wish Disney had the imagination and competency to go small vs. going big. With the strength of the brand/IP they would dominate the likes of Great Wolf Lodge or Kalahari in the “indoor waterpark resort” space, or the growing “immersive experience” space, if they had the will and acumen to try.
I have zero interest in DVC and never been to the Vero Beach or Hilton Head resorts but neither seem very exciting or “imagineered” (especially at their price points). I can only imagine what Disney could do if they put their hearts into creating “mini-gates” — special, Disney-fied resort experiences — throughout the US (or elsewhere).
Aulani might be a good template — I haven’t visited but it seems appropriately magical and aspirational. Its major flaw is that it’s in the exact wrong place. Hawaii is halfway across the Pacific and is already magical and aspirational! An Aulani-plus type resort (in scope if not in theming) near major tourist-friendly population centers (like Texas, Virginia, NY/NJ/Connecticut, Chicago, Denver, etc.) with fun/exciting/magical ambience and activities would totally crush the market if Disney knew how to run it. I don’t think it would cannibalize theme park visits just as local Legoland Discovery Centers aren’t going for the same market/audience as the Legoland theme parks.
Disney has failed at regional attractions before, and I’m skeptical that they’d try again–even if the markets have changed and the concept might be viable now (versus the 90s).
As much as I might like to see the idea, in theory, I hope it doesn’t happen. I don’t trust Parks & Resorts to design and deliver something on time and budget. Whereas it doesn’t matter (in the big picture) when that happens with Walt Disney World, it absolutely would on a small-scale project like this, as the cost would dictate pricing…which would in turn dictate success or failure.
Even though it’s a very different idea, I think Starcruiser is instructive in that. Imagineering created something that simply did not pencil out–it was way too expensive for the target audience, but there was no way to reduce the price and still make it work. Again, different scenario–same idea.
Parks & Resorts doesn’t need another albatross around its neck that prevents aggressive development for a decade. They’ve already had enough of that over the years.
I fully agree on no 5th gate, but it’s really the sad state capacity wise of the existing (non MK) WDW parks that make a 5th gate so impractical as much as anything (that, and the lack of US vacation time as Tom points out). AK has what, 8 attractions? It’s a joke how underbuilt that park is after a quarter of a century. Yes, it’s beautiful and thematic, but c’mon the fact that post 9/11 cheapo-late Eisner era Dinoland is still there is an eyesore. Even DHS – probably the best of the nonMK parks – could use 3-4 more rides to better manage crowds and lines. Epcot is still a hodgepodge with woefully outdated attractions or mothbothballed things.
While this blog is uniformly, steelily optimistic irrespective of the facts on the ground, I have less faith in the current Disney executive branch on overseeing the purported $17B 10-year capex. The last two years of using Expos and speeches to “Trial Balloon” potential lands and rides without anything coming to pass worth writing about seems to me the sign not of resolute leadership but of indecision, panicing, and a lack of originality. Where are the next generation of Tony Baxter, Marty Skylar, and Joe Rhoede? I hate that the big reveal is “here’s what we might be thinking about”…every time out. Josh D’Amaro has gotten a huge pass from the online fan community, probably because he seems a decent guy. But I’ve seen enough under his tenure to know not to trust him.
….why is it that EVERYONE here is missing the TRUE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM when it comes to Disney building a “fifth gate”?
THEY DO NOT HAVE THE MONEY!!! And may NEVER have it…..
Disneys adherence and devotion to the WOKE religion has cost them BILLIONS & BILLIONS of $$! Both at the box office and at the parks! Their share price has tanked dramatically because of it. People do not want their money going to “anti-traditional family value” woke ideology! Add to that the INCREDIBLE DEBT that Iger put the company in with all of his “master class” acquisitions! And Disney plus is better than 15 billion in the hole since its inception! (who knows if it will EVER be profitable??)
How about this list of TERRIBLE business decisions: This is a company that is very much in danger of a hostile take over by VERY MUCH NOT Woke Peltzer. How about the bribery scandal of Reedy Creek ? And going to war with Elon Musk?
Meanwhile they are creatively bankrupt and can’t come up with a winning ORIGINAL, PROFITABLE entertainment ideas-choosing instead to “re-imagine” everything in their catalog.
And now here comes Epic Universe, which will take a HUGE amount of of D-worlds customer base upon opening….
Gang, you have to HAVE MONEY to be able to spend it on things like a new theme park. Let alone making all the needed repairs and improvements to the existing parks. There just isn’t enough “magic” left in the tank for any of the above “wished” for improvements…..
Not sure how “EVERYONE” is missing this, given that we regularly discuss how paying down debt, sorting out streaming, ESPN and linear networks are threshold issues before the company can switch gears and focus on Parks & Resorts. It’s discussed in the following:
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-buying-full-stake-in-hulu-for-8-6-billion/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/iger-says-future-is-very-bright-as-parks-reports-record-revenue-while-disney-world-declines/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/disney-plans-to-double-investment-to-60-billion-turbocharge-disney-world-disneyland-beyond/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/bob-iger-reveals-plan-to-invest-17-billion-on-disney-world-expansion/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/espn-bet-disney-gambling-sports/
https://www.disneytouristblog.com/bob-iger-wants-to-build-big-park-expansions/
…and probably several other posts.
Disney isn’t the first company to have debt and definitely won’t be the last. It didn’t matter in a ZIRP environment, but now the circumstances are obviously different.
I’m not sure what, exactly, a heavily debt load has to do with being woke. Is having a mortgage woke, too?
This isn’t to say Disney hasn’t made poor business decisions or missteps…but there can be two problems without a causal link.
I am sure Tom did not mean for his post to be political, and he may want to remove my comment, but as a former Disney Cast Member I would argue that Disney has been “woke” as you call it for decades. I remember in the early 90’s going thru a class entitled “The Business Case for Diversity.” After that most, if not all areas had local Diversity teams.
And it made perfect sense for the company to focus on that. I am not sure of the current numbers but at that time 25% of Guests came from outside Walt Disney World. As is often the case with entertainment companies there are a higher than average members of the LGBTT+ community working for the company. You also have cultural representatives from around the world working for the there. When I worked Animal Kingdom about 80% of the Cast in Asia were from Nepal, Thailand, Bhutan, India, and Indonesia, and there were a great many Cast from Africa working in Harambe. It was great having the opportunity to learn about cultures that were often much different than ours here in the US.
I also remember the uproar from evangelical groups when Disney started to offer benefits to same sex partners sometime in the 1990’s, even though they were one of the last entertainment companies to do so. There were calls for boycotts, and if it impacted attendance it was definitely temporary.
If people want to believe Disney has suddenly gone “woke” that is fine as they are entitled to their opinion, but it wouldn’t be accurate. Maybe this has had a short term impact on attendance, but I would argue that people who believe that aren’t typically the people who were visiting Disney parks anyway.
Based on the past few quarterly reports, it’s a reasonable assumption that Disney+ will be making money rather than losing money before September 30 next year. It won’t be as profitable as rereleasing Disney movies on home video over and over again, but at least the company won’t need to come up with increasingly ridiculous ways of saying “Special Edition” over and over again.
You people are not only crazy but completely clues less about what you think you know, LMAO
Dude, you’re posting on a Disney parks info website…my guess is you’re still giving the mouse some cheese. Can we just stop pretending like basically all Disney movies aren’t about treating other people with kindness, celebrating each others differences, etc. Those are nice lessons to teach kids—like “The Golden Rule”. Frankly Disney’s bigger issue is that there most recent generation of hit makers have moved on to bigger/“better in their eyes” roles (Brad Bird made a frickin Mission Impossible movie!). It’s hard to keep a team of all stars together. But that’s cyclical…anyone who is over 30 here remembers in the late 90’s/00’s when the Disney Renaissance ended. And then remembers the string of MASSIVE record breaking hits as well that came along. That’s life, things go up and down. And as long as Disney exists as an independent entity, they’ll at many points in time be able to attract top tier creatives. In 2-4 years when there’s a new string of hits, the rumors of Disney selling will seem dumb (this all happened multiple times in the past 50 years btw). Unfortunately, I think the politically charged climate has added a weird element to the recent “Disney is Dead” debate. Kind of funny parallel is Saturday Night Live—how many times have the “Saturday Night Dead” headlines popped up. Perhaps you can recall when Chris Farley—now a legend—was on the cover of (I believe) the New Yorker with that headline.
Great article Tom, but you forgot what is probably the most compelling proof that WDW isn’t planning on adding any new parks any time soon. Remember that ALL FOUR WDW parks have tremendously expanded the size and capacity of their entrance gates over the last few years. Hollywood Studios is probably the most drastic case, with a new entrance area that barely resembles the old one. Having a greater ability to move park guests in and out certainly enables and motivates adding new attractions to their existing park locations as opposed to adding new ones.
That’s an excellent point!
It’s my understanding that those ‘arrival enhancement’ projects cost a ton of money, and were not done simply with ~2020 attendance in mind, but rather, forecasting growth out for another decade-plus.
I’m glad you brought up staffing. They can’t even staff two waterparks running simultaneously anymore and we think staffing for a new, full-fledged theme park is going to happen?
I fear it’s only going to get worse. Baby boomers are going to continue exiting the workforce, youth employment (statistically) continues to lag, and there’s less immigration to fill the void. All the while, Central Florida continues to add low-wage (again, statistically) tourism jobs while housing prices increase. It seems like something’s gotta give, but who knows, maybe Disney will go really hard on the College and International Programs. The new complex is enormous, and last I knew, it wasn’t even close to capacity.
I get your points about taking care of the other 3 1st, but I think the time and money would be best spent overhauling their flagship park, Magic Kingdom. Because of its age and number of outdated attractions, I think every land except for maybe Liberty Square needs a serious upgrade.
I don’t disagree that many Magic Kingdom attractions could use refreshes, better maintenance, etc.
That’s almost–but not entirely–a topic separate from this. A modernization of Peter Pan’s Flight or Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin, for example, are very much needed–but not marketable outside of super fans. Walt Disney World wants/needs additions or enhancements that are marketable. So the above wouldn’t qualify, but an overlay of Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster would. It’s a fine line, in some cases, but it is one that exists.
The truth of the matter is Disney has lost the war. I first went to Disneyland in 1968 and Disney World in 1974. I have owned DVC since 2012 and been a regular AP holder. I am doing my dream trip for 6 weeks in January and February of next year and will be back again in December. After that, no more Disney for me, I will be switching over to Universal. Love my DVC so will stay at DVC and get AP for Universal. The Disney Company has basically jacked up all the prices and cutback on everything. Can’t finish anything on time or as planned, just look at Communicore Hall not opening on time and just a shadow of what was promised. Disney has taken the money made at Disney parks to offset their huge streaming and movie losses. The magic is gone for good due to atrocious management.
I think there are plenty of problems with the contemporary Walt Disney Company, but claiming they’ve lost the war due, in part, to jacking up prices doesn’t pass the smell test IMO. Raising prices doesn’t happen in a vacuum; they were able to do so due to demand.
It’s not like Comcast, of all companies, is keeping prices at Universal’s hotels low to be nice to consumers. They’re doing it because Universal doesn’t have pricing power…yet. That third gate opens, and watch out.
Maybe not a 5th gate but they could expand Star Wars. The Dave Filoni franchise has been the biggest draw on the Disney channel, on streaming TV?, in years. Galaxy’s Edge is already so crowded that it rivals Six Flags for unpleasant theme park experience.
I agree that a 5th park is not going happen in the near future (and likely not within my lifetime). At the end of day, WDW is in the timeshare and hotel business, and not in the theme park business. The theme parks are just a reason to get people into the timeshares and hotels. Unless the timeshare and hotel consumers have excess demand that Disney cannot meet, which they currently do not, there is no reason for Disney to even think about building a 5th park in WDW. I personally believe that Disney will be broken up and the different segments spun off in the next ten years. I believe that the Disney company itself will become more of a licensing entity with independent third parties actually managing the operations of the hotels, theme parks, movies, etc.
I totally agree, for all the reasons you went into. My other question to people who think WDW will or should build a fifth park is—what theme would it be? You should not build a park to compete with universal—you should build a park because you have a compelling idea for one. WDW has a castle park, a studio park, an animal park, and a travel/discovery park (for lack of better description.) I don’t know what else there could be??
WDW fans have had the bar set so low that it’s hard to fault them for expecting a 5th park at this point. The reality though is that three of the four parks in Florida are half-day parks. They all need more RIDES. Not more shows, not more restaurants, not more meet & greets. MORE RIDES. Until that happens, a 5th park makes absolutely no sense.
I disagree. Well, partially disagree. I agree very much that 3 of the 4 parks need more rides.
More shows, restaurants, and meet & greets would also be good (depending upon where they go and what they are). The cancelled Main Street theater was a colossal blow, as Magic Kingdom could REALLY use a Mickey & friends musical stage show like almost every other castle park has. That’s a less sexy/exciting addition than a ride, but IMO, it’s more needed at MK.
I disagree. What distinguishes Disney from, say Six Flags, is that its parks have immersive theming and great attention to detail that make your fantasy (say, of being in Batuu) seem real. This means shows, characters, musical performances, parades, etc. I personally can’t go on most of the new rides, and even some of the old ones. Universal has carved out the thrill-park niche, and Disney has the family-park niche. I go to be enchanted by iconic characters and great food and beautiful gardens. Hollywood Studios lost Voyage of the Little Mermaid. I think it badly needs to do something with that building and give us another wonderful theater experience.
This is going to sound cynical but… no actually it is cynical. Not only will they not build a 5th gate, I don’t think they will actually complete any major expansion project in the existing parks in the next 10 years, regardless of what they say. I don’t think they are capable of it. I see capital funding earmarked for expansion getting clawed back by February-ish every single year, with perpetual dirtpits that make the Epcot one seem like it took no time.
To each their own, but I think that’s too cynical.
Parks & Resorts has been the biggest bright spot, and it’s where Wall Street wants to see spending. Disney isn’t going to do it for the sake of fans–they’re doing it because it’s the company’s best play for growth. That is, unless Disney+ somehow overtakes Netflix and becomes the dominant streaming service, but I just don’t see that happening.
Theme parks are Disney’s play, and Walt Disney World is the biggest and brightest option there (especially after just doubling the DCL fleet in size).
What would it take to make each existing park a two day park would be a fun series of posts to read!
(Honestly, the Pirates bar in the MK stands a good chance of opening in 2025. Does that count? 🙂
Zero insight into this whatsoever, but I think the Pirates bar will open next year. It’s being built in an existing space that’s already pretty well themed…and bars are cash cows for Disney. There’s no reason to drag their feet on that.
A fifth park majes no sense until they fix the outdated attractions presently in bad need of attention. Besides, despite the constant clamor to do so and his becoming the acknowledged EPCOT event ambassador, they either can’t or won’t fix Figment, so my faith in their doing ANYTHING diminishes as years pass. Well, anything but raising prices that is. They do that rather often and very well.
As disappointed as I was at the time, I’m honestly *relieved* that a Journey into Imagination reimagining wasn’t announced at the 2019 D23 Expo. Can you imagine if it had been? It either would’ve been cancelled (the better outcome) or would’ve been delayed and budget-cut to death. It’s absurd that they haven’t done it yet, but we dodged a bullet, timing-wise, on that.
I’m more optimistic about this 10-year plan, and if anything, I think the bulk of it happening in the shadow of Epic Universe is a really good thing for “motivating” Disney to deliver ambitious, high-quality results. We shall see, though.
I agree about 2019, but to blatantly misquote a line from a song in the musical Lil’ Abner, all they gotta do to fix Figgy is “Put him back the way he was!”, maybe with a bit more advanced technology. It ain’t rocket science Mr. Iger! 🙂 (You’re talking to someone whose wife’s vanity plate is FIGMENT1 and who stood in line to get a hug and picture with Mr. Purple Dragon last week!)
BTW, bought one of your super dooper Nikons today. (Welcome to an idiot’s intro to his first mirrorless.) It should be delivered next week. Naturally I’ll be away when it comes but it’ll keep me busy next weekend.
Learning the ins and outs of four parks is more than enough for us! As attractions are added we can get up to speed. Planning a Disney vacation is as complex as planning a trip to Europe! There’s a reason your blog is so popular…we all need as much help as possible! Of course we love your photos and humor as well. Merry first Christmas to Megatron!
“Planning a Disney vacation is as complex as planning a trip to Europe!”
Seriously! We often say that if you can do Walt Disney World, you can travel anywhere. No language barrier or complex public transportation networks have anything on the convoluted systems of Walt Disney World.
It honestly and sincerely surprises me when people who have mastered Walt Disney World are intimidated by Tokyo Disney or Europe or wherever. You’ve already figured out the difficult destination–those are cake by comparison!!!
Merry Christmas to you, too!
Tom, just for fun, if they were to build a 5th park, where are your top three locations on the property to put the fifth park? Then, to go totally blue sky, where would your top three locations be world wide for new parks?
I mean, I’m about the opposite of a civil engineer or urban planner, but I guess my wish list would be a DisneySea style project by Western Way–between Animal Kingdom and Coronado Springs. Then I’d connect those two parks plus Coronado and AKL by Skyliner. I have no idea whether that area is even buildable, so that could be entirely unrealistic.
As for more international parks, I’d imagine we’ll see another in Shanghai at some point. I’d prefer 2nd/3rd gates in Hong Kong and Paris, but I don’t think that’s likely. But it’s a similar story internationally to domestically–Disney needs to fix/expand what they have before building new locations.
I can’t believe this comes up time and again. You said this a lot more eloquently, but a 5th park makes no sense from an ROI perspective. For the same number of additional attractions you would need new roads, new parking lots, additional bus drivers, additional ticket sellers, more food delivery routes, and all of the other infrastructure for a new park. When those same new attractions can already easily fit within the footprint of the existing parks. Heck, in Epcot alone you could reopen the Wonders of Life pavilion, build 2 new countries on the existing expansion pads, and add the Mt. Fiji coaster to Japan and have most of the content of a new park. Use the money saved to build Australia in AK between Africa and Rafiki’s Planet Watch.
I have argued for years that they need to add Brazil. First, there are no SOUTH American countries at Epcot. Second, the number of Brazilians who love Disney and come to Disney Wotld is large – and not Disneyland, which would involve more travel time due to the position of eastern South America to the U.S. Third, it offers plenty of cool stuff: Carnaval, the Amazon rainforest, jaguars and amazing birds and plants. An Amazon river ride attraction kind of like Gran Fiesta Tour (my favorite Epcot ride.) People love to see representations of their own country – Mexicans crowd the Mexico Pavilion, and when i visited Tokyo Disneysea i was fascinated by its American areas!