New Wave of Disney World Attraction Closures, Cancellations & Cuts
At the beginning of May, CEO Bob Chapek said that although Disney believes in the concepts Imagineers have developed, upcoming Walt Disney World and Disneyland projects would be reviewed with a “fine-tooth comb” to save money. We’re now starting to see the first wave of this “combing,” and cover the resulting closures, cutbacks, and cancellations in this post.
Chapek’s original “fine-toothed comb” statement came as a follow-up to a statement that the parks would spend $900 million less than originally forecast this year by delaying and cancelling construction. Disney’s profits were down 91% to $475 million, and the closure had already cost the Parks, Experiences and Products division $1 billion primarily in terms of lost revenue.
This was revealed during the second quarter earnings call, which encompassed only 16-18 days of Walt Disney World, Disneyland, and Disneyland Paris being closed. It also came at a time when Florida was viewed as a success story and circumstances in California were improving. In other words, it was possibly the peak of optimism about the mid-term future of the parks.
Even at that time, the Walt Disney Company was pretty blunt about the current circumstances and near-term future. The third quarter is likely to be significantly worse (that earnings call will occur on Tuesday, August 4, 2020 at 4:30 p.m. EDT) as both Walt Disney World and Disneyland were closed for the entirety of that period.
There will likely be improvement in the fourth quarter as compared to the third quarter results, but it’ll likely still be worse than the already very bad second quarter. As for when Disney will see a return to its first quarter results? That is likely–quite literally–several years away.
Earlier this week, Cowen analyst Doug Creutz downgraded his rating on Disney’s stock after cutting his financial estimates and price target due to what he now expects to be a “longer impact on parks and film” due to accelerated spread and the prolonged impact of the pandemic. Much of this is predicated upon Disney’s film slate, and the likelihood that theaters will be largely closed until mid-2021.
As for Walt Disney World and Disneyland, the financial analyst expects the “recovery trajectory to be pushed out at least one year.” He said he believes that the best case scenario is heavy capacity restrictions remaining in place until at least mid-2021, along with a meaningful probability that the parks could close again. Consequently, this analyst does not believe Disney’s park profitability will return to last year’s levels until fiscal year 2025.
We’ve been highly skeptical of reopening predictions made financial analysts in the past. These individuals typically have no expertise in theme park operations, but understand the financial contours of the Walt Disney Company and its many business units.
Moreover, this is an unprecedented time, and these predictions run the gamut and often contradict one another. Suffice to say, cherrypicking the views of a particular analyst can validate your own preconceived notions, economic outlook, and general worldview—no matter what they may be—if that’s what you’re seeking to do.
With that said, there is consensus that Disney’s parks have a long road ahead, and recovery will not occur this year or even next. Financial analysts can quibble over whether the full recovery occurs in 2023, 2025, or 2027–but the point remains that it’s not happening in the next two years. And without certainty as to when the recovery will occur, the Walt Disney Company is in a precarious position during the intervening years.
That means less spending. It’s an inevitability that project cancellations, cutbacks, and existing attraction closures will occur at Walt Disney World. The same is true for staffing and layoffs. It’s not really a question of if these things will occur, but when and to what extent the severity will be. (Which is why a quick bounce-back later this year would’ve been great for Walt Disney World.) We’re now seeing this play out, with the first attraction and entertainment closures, plus projects “postponed” and scaled back for Epcot…
As covered in our Mary Poppins Epcot Expansion Info post, Walt Disney World quietly removed some concept art and scenes from the Epcot Experience overview video when the park reopened after its four month closure. Most notably, this included the segments on Spaceship Earth and Cherry Tree Lane in the United Kingdom.
In turn, Disney released the following statement: “As with most businesses during this period, we are further evaluating long-term project plans. The decision was made to postpone development of the Mary Poppins-inspired attraction and Spaceship Earth at this time.”
While the Walt Disney World spokesperson uses the term “postpone” in the statement, we believe the Mary Poppins/Cherry Tree Lane project is cancelled or shelved indefinitely.
The statement also means that Spaceship Earth will not receive its previously-announced multi-year reimagining and will instead continue to operate in its current form. Spaceship Earth needs a refurbishment for reasons unrelated to its show scenes and content, so at some point in the next few years, it will likely need downtime. However, that probably will not include the “story light” projection mapping changes.
There was also speculation that the new Festival Center had been scaled back. This new pavilion, pictured above, was slated to be a three-level structure with some of the most remarkable architectural designs at any Disney park, featuring a plaza level, a middle expo level, and a park that sits in the sky on the top level. The upper garden will provide a stunning elevated view of the entire park and an ideal view of Epcot’s new nighttime spectacular.
Disney released another statement, indicating that the company will “take a different approach” with the new Festival Center. While no details were offered, our expectation is that a Festival Center will be built, but not an architecturally-ambitious three-level structure.
Special events are lucrative business for Epcot and the Innoventions buildings where the Festival Center was to be located have already been demolished, so something will be built in that general location. As something that will directly generate revenue, the idea of a festival center won’t be cut entirely–just its scope and scale.
When it comes to the entire Central Spine redesign, you can expect a dramatically reduced budget–so adjust your expectations accordingly. Think more ‘mulch & grass’ and less things like the various interactive spaces and play areas. So much room for activities!
Next up, Walt Disney World has sent a memo to Cast Members informing them of the permanent closures of Stitch’s Great Escape, Primeval Whirl, and Rivers of Light. The first two are no surprise–we reported on Stitch’s Great Escape being gutted months ago, and even before then, it hadn’t operated in over a year.
Primeval Whirl actually reopened for the busy holiday period late last year, but still had “seasonal status,” which is almost always the kiss of death for Walt Disney World attractions. At one point, both of these attractions had replacement plans that were close to being greenlit. That almost certainly is not the case now, although I’m not 100% sure on that.
Rivers of Light is a bit more surprising. Walt Disney World spent a lot of money developing (and fixing!) this nighttime spectacular for Animal Kingdom in its efforts to keep guests there the entire day. Of that initiative, only Pandora – World of Avatar remains.
For our part, we actually liked Rivers of Light and reviewed it fairly positively. It concerns me that this might be the last big budget non-IP addition at Walt Disney World. However, I can count on one hand how many times I sat and watched the show in its entirety and we hadn’t watched Rivers of Light: We Are One in over a year. So I guess we’re part of the problem. At least the show’s beautiful soundtrack, which will do regularly enjoy, will live on.
Ultimately, even the announcement that Rivers of Light has already performed its final show shouldn’t come as a surprise. More cuts, cancellations, and closures are an inevitability, and some of them likely actually will be surprising. We don’t want to sound all doom and gloomy, but that’s simply the unfortunate reality of the present circumstances. While many Walt Disney World fans have probably yet to process it given everything else that’s going on, the fallout here over the course of the next decade is likely to be on par with or worse than the EuroDisney boondoggle or post-9/11.
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Your Thoughts
Are you disappointed by any of the cutbacks, closures, or project cancellations that have been announced thus far? Anything else you expect to be shelved indefinitely? Think this will end up being worse than the EuroDisney or post-9/11 fallout? Do you agree or disagree with our commentary? Any questions we can help you answer? Hearing your feedback–even when you disagree with us–is both interesting to us and helpful to other readers, so please share your thoughts below in the comments!
I was so excited about the design of the new Festival Center (along with the whole Central Spine)! The shape and use of glass in the concept art made me think of some aspects of Apple Park. Since that’s not open to the public, I was really looking forward to getting to experience design like that in person and not just through pictures. It also looks like an updated version of the mid century designs of Tomorrowland. Whatever they end up building will be a nice replacement for the pin station and shade sails though I will miss the Fountain of Nations.
The Lucas Museum of Narrative Art will look somewhat similar (IMO), so if you find yourself in Los Angeles sometime whenever that’s finished, hopefully that will be an adequate substitute!
It looks awesome! Thanks for the recommendation!
I hate to think what this means for any monorail replacement plans. While scaling back on some things can make sense, WDW has always struck me as being extremely short-sighted in its development process in bowing to the whims of the economy.
Yes, this is one hell of a whim we’re going through now, and yes, WDW and Disney parks are very much reliant upon a positive economy for revenue. I understand that. Truly.
But history shows that the economy will recover. After all, we’re soon going to enter the 50th anniversary in October of 2021.
People want to come to WDW, and will when the economy recovers. Having new things to promote when the economy recovers. The festival pavilion is one such long-term project. Ditto Spaceship Earth. Mary Poppins? No one is still sure what was to go there, but Epcot could use another new ride that appeals to kids (of all ages, of course). It just seems WDW never puts away for a rainy day.
Epcot, despite Remy’s ride, is right now the poor sister of parks. MK, AK and Hollywood have all gotten makeovers in recent years. Sure, there are 2 new rides coming (and what’s the word on Remy opening?) but Epcot’s fallen behind the other parks.
To me, WDW’s priorities should be: Finishing the rides already started. Continuing the reimaging of Epcot’s Spine, especially the festival center; I’d scale back on none of this, as this is an ultra-long term investment for the next 25+ years) I can see putting the update of Spaceship Earth on the backburner, ditto Mary Poppins. Reflections? If they’ve not begun concrete pours, push the pause button. They’ve done it before there. We could see this come back ala Art of Animation at a later date, hopefully with a better name. Lastly on my list, the monorail. It’s last on the list, but not last on priorities.
The Mark VI rolled out in 1989. We’re in year 31 of a monorail which had a life expectancy of 20 years. They still need to bring out ramps for every scooter and wheelchair. The failure to have shiny new monorails for the 50th anniversary strikes me as an example of the lack of vision I’ve been seeing in the leadership of WDW (and parent companies) for the last decade+.
So, current ride completions, monorails and Epcot spine redo are the priorities I think WDW should be going for at this point. That and working on a better rainy day fund.
I agree with most of this sentiment.
One thing to add: construction is going to be cheaper for the next few years than it has been for the last few. Being bullish on the future and building now for the upswing is definitely better than building while times are booming. It just requires confidence and appetite for risk that it’s hard to imagine Disney has right now.
I think the big difference this time around is the massive debt Disney has taken on with the Fox acquisition. Make no mistake- a prolonged downturn (pandemic closing of theaters and parks plus a severe and long-lasting financial recession) could put the company’s future at risk. The only thing they have going for them in covering their debt is the low interest rate which should last for many years.
Totally agree about the monorail. My fear has been that Disney would decide it’s not worth the expense, and has some secret long-term plans to replace it with a version of the Skyliner making the rounds to the currently-monorail resorts, and possibly add a few boats. An argument in favor would be they could include Wilderness Lodge on the loop.
But, the monorail IS Disney World, and Disney World IS the monorail. You can’t have one without the other, and still be WDW. Losing the monorail would be a horrible tragedy, but with Disney’s current view that money beats all, it’s not impossible to think in those terms.
Epcot is the adult park to me with all the festivals. There is a bit of stuff for the kids, but it’s mostly an adult venue. And there is nothing wrong with that.
I very much enjoyed Rivers of Light and I’m rather sad to see it go. Moreso because it’s not like losing other nighttime shows where they are leaving because something new is coming – I’m sure it will be a long time in the current situation before Animal Kingdom receives any new nighttime show.
“As something that will directly generate revenue, the idea of a festival center won’t be cut entirely—just its scope and scale.”
Is it more or less likely that the Play Pavilion makeover gets put on hold and that area is (or continues to be) used for festival events? I suppose if demand is great enough they could continue to build a festival center there, too.
I truly don’t know. I was under the impression that the Play Pavilion was fairly far along, but I’m not totally certain of that.
play pavilion building already existed. big difference between renovation and totally new construction.
It’s sad to think the beautiful EPCOT concept art won’t come to pass – this is just so out of everyone’s control! Luckily we’ve had such an amazing amount of innovation and additions to the parks added since the start of New Fantasyland until present. I think we’re going to look back at the last decade and half as a very special time in WDW history.
Only because they let everything rot for the decade prior. Epcot and HS should NEVER have gotten to the point they let them get to. It’s sad. Epcot used to be the best park, now it’s a shell.
I am by no means happy about why there are so many changes to things planned, but I do think it was a lot of changes fast. I was concerned about how many changes there were going to be, maybe now they can remove the ugly green walls. Hopefully the cost will reflect the value of what we are actually getting. I saw rivers of light for the first time last year, and I was not too impressed. While I like Mary poppins I also like the area around England the way it is. I would also love if they kept character’s elsewhere besides Epcot. It is loosing what it is supposed to be. So I think there are positive results from a negative reason.
I feel more or less the same way. I applaud Disney’s willingness to spend money on the domestic parks, but the allocation of those funds has left something to be desired (IMO).
I’d consider Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, the Skyliner, New Fantasyland, and Pandora to be very good uses of resources–and I know plenty of fans would quibble with those projects.
Pretty much everything else that has been added or was slated to be added I’m a bit “meh” about for various reasons.
At this point, I’m hoping that Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind doesn’t have its budget slashed. The damage is already done with that (giant showbuilding and to Epcot’s theme), so we might as well get an awesome, blockbuster attraction out of it.
I mostly Iike the UK (often used synonymously but not just England), but the change I would truly like to see right away is to move the UK Beer Cart to one of the several underutilized side streets in the same area. My problem is not the alcohol. I’m all in favor of a good beer or hard cider, and I even like standing around with friends while enjoying same. But that the walkway is completely blocked by the crowds who are just standing there drinking and socializing makes it near impossible to get through. (Let’s look to the future when close-quarter socializing is again safe.) It’s a moveable cart! Put it, and its resulting crowds, somewhere less obtrusive!
It’s really sad that this time of budget cuts is coming exactly at the time that Epcot was due to received its long-awaited overhaul. So much money has been spent in the past decade on revamping huge swaths of all three of the other parks, and so much of Epcot was beginning to look sad in comparison. I love Epcot and I would really like to see it revitalized the way it was envisioned before my kid (who is one) becomes an adult. It’s looking increasingly unlikely given the current circumstances.
Agreed, Epcot was due for some major TLC. I’m worried that things will get scaled back to the point where we end up with something like the original version of California Adventure. I get Disney needs to save money in the near term, hopefully they do so in a way that prevents them from having to spend more in the future to fix their mistakes like with DCA.
What’s bonkers is that they were making cuts to street entertainment when they were making money hand over fist.
This is depressing news but not surprising and thanks for the updates Tom.
Epcot needs a large injection of freshness.
Even DAK needs some attention and new attractions. Very little actual physical attractions although an outstanding and beautiful park.
I guess the only redeeming thing is HWS received some great additions recently.
I have to say, this really makes me question Disney’s decision to re-theme Splash Mountain. EPCOT is in a really poor state right now. Siphoning funds from that park’s update to change an already very popular ride seems like a huge mistake to me.
agreed Grant
the thing about splash is, they’ve made the announcement and one concept drawing, that’s it. i don’t think they are going to start that project anytime soon. the timing of the announcement was for positive PR. i don’t recall anything in it giving a specific timeline.
Agreed 100%
Do you think recent cuts on AK hours have anything to do with the RoL cancellation? I’m wondering if the park will return to more frequent closures before the sun goes down to help cut costs.
That’s one of the things I find oddest about this. Disney didn’t have to announce Rivers of Light ending at all, since nighttime spectaculars are on hiatus, and even after that, it seems unlikely DAK will be open much after dark. So why not just quietly kill it off, with fans not finding out in another couple of years? (Same with Stitch’s Great Escape and Primeval Whirl…did anyone actually think those were coming back?)
It’s not like this is advance notice that gives fans a chance to see Rivers of Light one last time. (It’s also not like Rivers of Light has a passionate fanbase that’ll strongly care one way or the other.)
Yes, but it is a way to ease people into the idea. Announce things that are more or less already gone, not popular, not running anyway, etc, and you can do a couple of things. You get people used to the idea of cuts while blunting the reaction as those cuts are relatively easy pills to swallow. They couldn’t just announce the EPCOT changes. They had to add in the others, so EPCOT isn’t as glaring and to set the stage for future cuts. More announcements will come. I am sure they are hoping to dull the reaction over time as those announcements get worse.
What are your thoughts on Apple buying Disney? If that ever happens, do you think we’ll see OLC type of spending at all Disney-owned parks? I personally would love to see it happen, not only for that, but also because Apple could design and develop all of the robots that will eventually take over the people jobs throughout the parks and resorts. I think it would be an incredible partnership.
It’s at least superficially plausible given where both companies stand and their strategic needs, but I don’t know enough to offer any insightful or worthwhile commentary as to likelihood. (I’m also not particularly keen on more consolidation of major media/tech companies.)
If it were to happen, I think Apple’s focus would be on the streaming business, not on theme parks. I don’t see any scenario where OLC spending and business philosophies come to the US parks.
Golly, I wonder what Apple would charge for a Magic Band?
I have to disagree vehemently with this let Disney run Disney and Apple run Apple. Nothing good can come out of this partnership long term.
In all the times I’ve been to the park I’ve only seen Rivers of light once. It wasn’t that memorable to me but I know a lot of people did enjoy it.
Rivers of Light is no great loss, in my opinion. Sat through most of it once, in December 2018 and I could barely make out the “projections” on the water…was not a great experience. Space and area could be put to much better use.
And maybe it will be down the road. However, I’d expect the Rivers of Light replacement to be “nothing” for 5+ years. Hope I’m wrong!
The quality of each showing of Rivers of Light lived or died with how much breeze was blowing. On a calm evening with no wind, the projections on the mist and water curtains really “popped”, and were a real “wow moment” for the audience. On showings where there was just a little breeze, the projections were hard or impossible to make out, leaving the audience feeling like they were missing something. I think most of the folks who were nonplussed by the projections saw the show on a breezy night and were understandably unimpressed. But on a good night, it really was a special show. I’ve seen it under both conditions, and the contrast is very stark.
I’m sad to see it go, but running the show costs a lot of money in tech crew and maintenance, so I can see why they cut it. Especially if the resulting shows couldn’t be kept up to consistent standards due to the whole wind and water problem. Again, it didn’t take much wind to disrupt the projections, just a moderate breeze would make it nigh unwatchable.
With attendance and revenues down dramatically, I wonder how this will affect ticket and Annual Pass pricing over the next 12-24 months. The sky-high price increases were reportedly to help manage intense demand and overcrowding. Now they have the opposite problem, and expect to for the foreseeable future. It would be hard for Disney to justify the stratospheric pricing for tickets/APs under current conditions.
My guess is that we’ll see more Florida resident ticket specials and AP promos for bonus months, but not an outright reduction of ticket prices. I’d also expect more aggressive discounting (for instance, 20% off Taste of Food & Wine Festival booths for APs) to encourage more spending by APs and locals.
Could be. I’ll hold out a tiny glimmer of hope that AP prices will eventually drop, at least for a little while. If so, I’ll buy several years worth of renewal vouchers from AAA at the lower price, since all the ones I’ve bought over the last several years have been valid until 12/31/2030.
I did that a couple years ago just before one of the price increases, to lock in the lower rate. Bought a few years worth of renewals– redeeming some of them each year when we need to renew our APs.
Tom, what are your thoughts on M & M Runaway Railroad in Disneyland?
More likely than the second Marvel Land attraction, but that’s not saying much since I don’t think there’s any chance the Marvel E-Ticket will happen.
For MMRR, it really depends upon the sunk costs of R&D and what has already been done in Disneyland. It might still make sense to move forward on that project.
If the Marvel E ticket is cancelled that would be so disappointing, especially since the Spider-Man ride sounds underwhelming. It would be like if Pandora only had Navi River Journey AND you dialed the theming way back.
It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
With all that extra room they can host next years Catalina Wine Mixer.
With Yachty by Nature performing remixes of Disney Classics? You’re on to something…
Well played.
Did we just become best friends?
I listed to the Rivers of Light soundtrack quite a bit – I think it is really well done. (If Illuminations is a 10/10, I’d give RoL an 8/10.) Unfortunately, as you said, the show isn’t as great. It’s not bad by any means, but it’s not something I plan my day around being able to see like I would with HEA or Illuminations. It’s certainly better than a giant, empty amphitheater though! So hopefully this is a chance to reinvent a new, better show for debut at a later date.
I love to see Splash Mountain remain as is and the unimpressive Princess and the Frog makeover scrapped. SM is charming and beautifully done. The inside show is stunning and the finale exciting and breathtaking. Love for this icon of WDW ingenuity and joy is evidenced by the long lines of riders wanting to have as many Happy rides before an ill-motivated renovation is allowed to destroy it. Would also save a boat-load of unwanted unneeded expense
Agreed. Plus, if I’m in Animal Kingdom at night, I’d rather be wandering around Pandora while it’s actually peaceful and comfortable than watching Rivers of Light.
agreed Cathy
stitch and whirl are certainly no great loss. rivers of light was… disjointed. if eventually they put another nighttime show, since they have the seating, i’d love to see something much more like World of Color. that’s obviously for another time.
any plans that have been announce but not broken ground, say goodbye indefinitely. anything that has gone vertical will likely have significant changes and scaled back. anything nearing completion should remain unaffected. i don’t look for anything new for quite awhile that wasn’t already nearing opening.
“any plans that have been announce but not broken ground, say goodbye indefinitely. anything that has gone vertical will likely have significant changes and scaled back. anything nearing completion should remain unaffected. i don’t look for anything new for quite awhile that wasn’t already nearing opening.”
100% agreed.
“Rivers of Light is a bit more surprising”
I was pretty bummed when I heard this. We saw RoL on our “first and only” Disney trip, which has evolved into a yearly trip. It’s cheesy, but one of the Disney moments that hooked me on the parks and resort experience was when my then 6 year old daughter turned to me when RoL ended and asked very earnestly, “You turn that back on for me?”
The show wasn’t perfect, but I quite enjoyed having some good family time (with a cold beer) while we waited for the show to start. The ambiance of the amphitheater with the view over the water and Asia off to the right was underrated in my opinion. I thought it was a nice way to end a day in AK.
I’m not crying – you’re crying!
1,000% agree. I’m very broken hearted.